突发洪水时山区中小水库漫坝风险的极大熵分析  

Maximum entropy analysis of small and medium mountain reservoir overtopping risks during sudden flood

作　　者：陈业华[1] 王浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2015年第4期9-15,共7页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171174);河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2014203219)

摘　　要：水库漫坝事故是大坝失事的常见情形,分析水库漫坝的风险在水库漫坝预测中十分重要。基于突发洪水时水库漫坝风险的特征分析,定义一种水库漫坝极限状态函数,构建突发洪水漫坝极限状态风险的极大熵模型,以确定漫坝风险的概率密度函数。采用BP神经网络方法,对水库漫坝极限状态函数进行拟合,结合二次四阶矩法计算水库漫坝风险的概率密度函数,给出求解水库漫坝风险概率的算法步骤,进一步计算出水库漫坝风险的概率值,为水库漫坝的预测和防范提供科学依据。最后,通过一座山区小型水库实例计算分析,表明这种极大熵法的结果与其他分析方法的结果非常接近,且计算效率较高。Reservoir overtopping occurs under the conditions of the sudden flood is a common situation for dam failure, and how to analyze the reservoir overtopping risks seems so important in the overtopping event prediction. On the basis of the analysis of the characteristics of the reservoir overtopping risks under the conditions of the sudden flood, we define an overtopping limit state function to establish a maximum entropy model for analysis of the sudden flood overtopping limit state risks, and to determine the probability density function of flood waves overtopping risks. The method of BP neural network has been adopted to fit the reservoir overtopping hmit state function, calculate the probability density function of the reservoir waves overtopping risks by using a quadratic fourth-order moment method, give the solving steps of the probability of the reservoir waves overtopping risks, and further calculate the probabihties of the reservoir waves overtopping risks, thus providing a scientific basis for the prediction and prevention of the reservoir overtopping. Finally, by calculating and analyzing a small and medium mountain reservoir, the analysis results show that the calculated results of the maximum entropy method are very close to those of the other methods, and that the model has a higher computational efficiency.

关 键 词：突发洪水 水库漫坝风险 极大熵 二次四阶矩 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]