降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法的开发——以镇江古运河为例  

DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE ANNUAL LOAD OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION——A CASE STUDY IN ZHENJIANG ANCIENT CANAL

作　　者：周明涛[1,2] 胡旭东[1] 张守德[1] 高家祯 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木与建筑学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学三峡地区地质灾害与生态环境湖北省协同创新中心,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2015年第8期1381-1386,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：十二五国家科技支撑计划项目"金沙江梯级水电开发区生态保护与入库泥沙调控关键技术与示范"(2012BAC06B02);三峡大学研究生科研创新基金项目(2014CX019)

摘　　要：在对镇江古运河2009-2013年的降雨量、降雨径流污染物量监测的基础上,运用回归分析建立降雨量-径流污染方程,并采用灰色理论对未来降雨量进行预测,进而得出降雨径流面源污染年负荷值。结果表明：2014-2020年间,镇江古运河降雨径流中污染物TP、NH3-N和SS的年负荷与降雨量同向变化,2020年降雨量达到1 381.2mm时,污染物TP、NH3-N和SS的年负荷可分别达到217.15t、421.4t、5 811.87t,数值较大;灰色理论与回归分析结合所提出的降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法,能够在小样本、贫信息和波动数据序列情况下,简捷有效的对降雨径流面源污染负荷进行高精度的预测,实用与推广价值较大。With the pace of urban modernization, non-point source pollution is becoming increasingly serious to the urban rivers. According to the survey data, the concentrations of total phosphorus （TP）, ammonium （NHa-N） and suspended solids （SS） in Zhenjiang Ancient Canal were higher than the national standard. As a result, the water quality of the Ancient Canal has been seriously polluted, therefore it＇s urgent for us to take measures to monitor the water quality and build model to analyze the water quality of the Ancient Canal. Based on the monitoring data of rainfall, the content of contaminants in rainfall runoff in Zhenjiang Ancient Canal from 2009 to 2013, we established a regression equation between rainfall and runoff pollution, and then applied the Grey theory to predict future rainfall. Grey theory is the essential to make the irregular data variations into the regular data, through the way of accumulation, subtraction and so on to process, then using the differential equation fitting, and predict the future data by extension. What＇s more, the known original data is called white, the prediction data is called gray, and process is called bleaching or weakening of the randomness of the data sequence. The results reveal that the annual loads of TP, NHa-N of rainfall runoff pollutants are expected to change with the rainfall in the canal, and the concentration of TP, NHa-N and SS will change similarly from 2014 to 2020; when the rainfall reaches 1 381.2 mm in 2020, the annual load of TP, NH3-N and SS will reach 217.15 t, 421.4 t, and 5 811.87 t, respectively and the concentrations of contaminants in rainfall runoff will be very large. Therefore, we should make green, clear the rubbish, take measures of the slope protection and a series of measures on both sides of the Ancient Canal to reduce the non-point source pollution produced by rain runoff, and then we can achieve good water quality of the river after taking action. Furthermore, the comfortable environment can provide a better life for the loca

关 键 词：降雨径流 面源污染 降雨量-径流污染物方程 灰色理论 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]