供应链网络风险扩散动力学模型及其应用  

Dynamic model for the risk spreading in supply chain network and its application

作　　者：赵钢[1,2,3] 杨英宝[1] 包旭[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]淮阴工学院交通工程学院,淮安223003 [3]江苏省交通运输与安全保障重点实验室,淮安223003

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第8期2014-2024,共11页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71403096;51308246);民航局科技基金(MHRD201125);江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金(2012SJB630006)

摘　　要：在考察分析供应链网络结构域组分特征的基础上,建立了供应链网络风险扩散动力学模型,给出其定态解.该模型由一组方程构成,设置了风险产生项与风险湮没项,合理考虑了风险在供应链网络主体间的传导概率,并设置了主体感染风险阈值.该模型能够反映供应链网络中风险扩散机理,也可以揭示供应链网络结构演进下的风险扩散特征变化.将模型运用到实际的农产品供应链网络中,获得了当前农产品供应链网络及其演进结构下的风险扩散特性.On the basis of analyzing the component characteristics of the domain of supply chain network, dynamic model for the risk spreading in supply chain network is established and the steady-state solution is given in this paper. The dynamic model consists of a set of equations and sets up risk generation term and annihilation term. The probability of risk transmission between the subjects of supply chain network is considered and the threshold of infection risk of subjects in supply chain network is set. The model can reflect the mechanism of risk spreading in supply chain network; also can reveal the change of properties of risk spreading in tile structure evolution of supply chain network. The dynamic model is applied in actual agricultural products supply chain network. The properties of risk spreading of the agricultural products supply chain network and the properties of risk spreading of its evolution structure are obtained through the application of the dynamic model.

关 键 词：风险扩散 供应链网络 动力学模型 结构模体 农产品 

分 类 号：TP242[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]