基于集对论和变权理论的高速公路安全系统评价  

Evaluation of expressway safety system using set pair theory and variable weight principle

作　　者：崔洪军[1] 李霖[1] 李昊[2] 杜子涛[1] 马新卫 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木工程学院,天津300401 [2]河北工程技术高等专科学校,沧州061000

出　　处：《科技导报》2015年第16期72-76,共5页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目(07216923)

摘　　要：针对高速公路安全事故频发的现状,为有效地降低交通事故发生率,建立健全高速公路管理机制,对高速公路安全系统进行评价。通过对安全系统内各指标进行同、反、异三方面分析,运用集对论确定联系度,提出集对评价分析方法;基于高速公路安全体系实际情况,建立惩罚-激励的指标权重确定方法,与集对理论结合,通过计算联系度,确定了高速公路安全系统集对变权综合评价方法;通过对呼集高速公路安全系统进行实例评价。结果表明,综合评价方法计算简便,评价结果客观科学,对公路系统安全评定方面具有一定的应用和推广价值。According to the current situation that highway accidents happen frequently, it is necessary to evaluate the highway safety system in order to effectively reduce the incidence of traffic accidents and establish a sound mechanism for highway management. Through the identical-different-contrary analysis of every safety index of the system and the connection degree, an evaluation analysis method using set pair theory is presented. Considering the actual situation of expressway safety system, a punishment-excitation variable weight determination method is also given. By combining the set pair theory and calculating the connection degree, a set pair variable weight comprehensive evaluation method is proposed. Taking the evaluation of the Huji Expressway Safety System for example, the rationality of the evaluation method is verified. The method is simple in calculation and the evaluation resuhs are objective and scientific, and it has great application and popularization values on the safety evaluation of highway systems.

关 键 词：集对论 变权 高速公路 安全评价 

分 类 号：U492.8[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]