中国技术进步与经济增长收敛性测度——基于创新与效率的视角  

An Evaluation of Chinese Technological Progress and the Convergence of Economic Growth—From the Perspective of Innovation and Efficiency

作　　者：苏治[1] 徐淑丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,副教授北京100081

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2015年第7期4-25,205,共22页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：2014年国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473279);2011年国家自然科学基金青年项目(71101157)的阶段性成果;2013年度"新世纪优秀人才支持计划";2013年国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAH16F02);教育部人文社科研究项目(10YJC790220);教育部博士点基金课题(20110016120001);中央财经大学第二批青年科研创新团队项目资助

摘　　要：创新是经济持续增长的动力。将技术进步分解为技术创新与技术效率,使用1991—2012年中国工业行业数据,结合数据包络多期分析和随机前沿分析方法,测度技术进步对经济增长的贡献及变化趋势,考察中国经济在技术要素作用下的发展路径及收敛趋势。研究结果表明:在近20年经济的高速发展中,技术效率贡献度不高,技术创新是推动中国技术进步有效性的真实驱动力;行业的持续增长主要依靠技术创新和改进,而当技术创新或改进低迷甚至停滞时,技术效率提升体现为对技术创新的替代和互补,以维持技术进步的有效性。垄断程度高的行业的技术效率提高主要依靠资本积累,竞争性强的行业的技术效率提高主要依靠组织管理效率改善。只有各行业均衡发展,才能形成更广泛的技术创新和技术效率改进,保证经济的长期可持续增长。Innovation provides the impetus for sustained economic growth.This paper decomposes technological progress into technological innovation and technological efficiency.Using data on Chinese industry for 1991-2012,we combine multiple-period analysis and stochastic frontier analysis in our analysis of data envelopment,so as to analyze changing trends in the contribution of technological progress to economic growth and investigate the development path and trend toward convergence of the Chinese economy under the impact of technological factors.Our findings show that over nearly two decades of rapid economic development,the contribution of technological efficiency was not great;the real impetus for effective Chinese technological progress came from technological innovation.Sustained industrial growth mainly depended upon technological innovation and improvement,but when these factors were sluggish or even stagnated,improvements in technological efficiency appeared as substitutes for or supplements to technological innovation,thus maintaining effective technological progress.In industries which are highly monopolistic,improvements in technological efficiency relied mainly on capital accumulation,while in highly competitive industries it mainly depended on the improved efficiency of organizational management.Only the balanced development of different industries can bring about more extensive technological innovation and improved technological efficiency,thus guaranteeing long-term sustainable economic growth.

关 键 词：技术进步 经济增长 技术创新 技术效率 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]