近20年黄淮海地区气候变暖对夏玉米生育进程及产量的影响  

Effects of Climate Warming on Growth Process and Yield of Summer Maize in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in Last 20 Years

作　　者：陆伟婷 于欢[1] 曹胜男[1] 陈长青[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学应用生态研究所,南京210095

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2015年第16期3132-3145,共14页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家"973"计划(2010CB951501);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划(2011BAD16B14)

摘　　要：【目的】探求黄淮海地区近20年气候变暖对夏玉米生长发育进程及产量的影响,为气候变暖背景下夏玉米的高产稳产制定合理的应对措施提供理论依据。【方法】选取黄淮海地区,包括河北、京津地区、河南、山东、安徽和江苏等地区进行区域研究,利用该地区近20年长期观察的气候数据和夏玉米生产数据以及历史产量数据,采用相关分析和非线性多元回归等分析方法,明确气候因子(温度和降水)与夏玉米生育期和产量的关系。【结果】近20年间黄淮海大部分地区夏玉米生长季内区域平均温度呈上升趋势,但存在地区间差异。降水方面,该区东北部的京津-河北地区与山东降水量呈下降的趋势。与1990s相比,2000s河北和山东夏玉米营养生长期天数呈下降趋势,分别下降2 d和1 d,河南呈上升趋势,增加1 d;而生殖生长期呈上升趋势,分别上升4 d和2 d,河南下降1 d。全生育期天数有所增加,平均增加2 d和1 d。河南保持不变。利用F检验法分析审定品种和试验地玉米全生育期线性趋势一致性。结果表明,审定品种生育期和试验地玉米生育期变化呈现一致的趋势,说明品种的变化是影响夏玉米生育期的因子。采用线性偏回归测验法分析品种和气候因子对夏玉米生育期影响重要性。结果表明,气候因子是夏玉米生育期变化的主要因子,影响率占75.3%。黄淮海地区(除江苏外)夏玉米产量以增产为主。非线性分析表明,气温升高会导致黄淮海地区北部的河北与西部的河南夏玉米产量上升,东南部地区各省份夏玉米的减产。降水对该地区干旱少雨的北部地区夏玉米产量有正效应,对湿润多雨的南部地区有负效应。此外,当GDD10上升时,黄淮海地区北部的河北与西部的河南的夏玉米产量会随着上升,而东部和南部的山东、安徽与江苏夏玉米产量将会下降;整个黄淮海地区,当GDD30上升时,会造成【Objective】The impacts of climate warming on growth process and yield of summer maize in recent 20 years in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain（HHH） of China, for the purpose of providing a theoretical basis for food security.【Method】Six provinces and regions（Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces and Beijing-Tianjin region） in HHH Plain were selected as the area for conducting research. Making use of the meteorological observation data and the long-term observation data of summer maize in recent 20 years in HHH Plain, the relationships between climatic factors（temperature and precipitation） and growth process and historical production data during growing season were systematically studied by correlation and nonlinear multiple regression analysis and other statistical methods.【Result】In recent twenty years, an upward trend was found out in the temperature during the growth season of summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The precipitation in northern regions, Beijing-Tianjin region, Hebei and Shandong provinces, was reduced, while it was increased in Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu provinces. Compared to 1990 s, the growth process of summer maize in HHH Plain was significantly changed since 2000. The whole growth stages were prolonged with vegetative period shortened by 2 and 1 d in Hebei and Shandong provinces, prolonged by 1 d in Henan province and reproductive stage prolonged by 4 and 2 d in Hebei and Shandong provinces, Henan province remained the same. Different correlations were found between each growth duration and temperature factors. Analysis of the relationship between two linear regression equations showed that the state-approved varieties had a same change in the growth period with the experiment station varieties. This indicated that varieties were one of the factors which affected the growth period of summer maize. By adopting linear partial regression test method the importance of varieties and climatic factors on summer maize growth period was analyzed and the results showed that th

关 键 词：气候变暖 夏玉米 黄淮海地区 作物生育期 产量 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]