第25太阳周太阳黑子数峰值预测  

The prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25

作　　者：苗娟[1,2,3] 龚建村[1] 李志涛[1] 任廷领 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院空间科学与应用研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]宇航动力学国家重点实验室,西安710043

出　　处：《中国科学：物理学、力学、天文学》2015年第9期95-101,共7页Scientia Sinica Physica,Mechanica & Astronomica

基　　金：宇航动力学国家重点实验室开放基金项目(编号:2014ADL-DW0303);国家重点基础研究发展计划(编号:2012CB825606)资助项目

摘　　要：本文通过对历史太阳周的峰值、上升期、下降期等特征参数的统计分析,给出了峰值变化与上升期之间的三类线性拟合关系,两个太阳周峰值之间长度与下降期的两类拟合关系,并通过分析太阳周的长期变化周期和第10周之后的偶、奇数峰值的变化规律,给出第25太阳周的预测结果:预计第25太阳周在2020年6月前后开始,该周会比第24太阳周强,太阳黑子数峰值为119.2±5.5,峰值强度类似于第17太阳周和23太阳周.In this paper, the correlation between various parameters of solar cycles 0-23 is investigated. The parameters include maximum, rising time and descending time. Three derived regression equations are given between maximum and rising time. Two derived regression equations are given between descending time and total of descending time and next rising time. Additionally, according to the cycle periodicity of secular trend and the regularity of maximum between even cycles and following odd cycles, the prediction of cycle 25 is obtained. It is expected that solar cycle 25 will begin in June 2020 and will be relatively stronger than cycle 24. The sunspot number maximum of cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2024 with a sunspot number of 119.2±5.5, which will be nearly the same strength of cycle 17 and 23.

关 键 词：太阳周 峰值 上升期 下降期 

分 类 号：P182.41[天文地球—天文学]