考虑人为因素的设备可靠度评估及定检周期决策  

Equipment Reliability Evaluation and Maintenance Period Decision Considering the Impact of Human Factors

作　　者：暴英凯 王逸飞[1] 文云峰[1] 郭创新[1] 周伟[2] 张立志[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网湖南省电力公司检修公司,湖南省长沙市410004

出　　处：《电网技术》2015年第9期2546-2552,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)(2013CB228206);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177143);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LZ14E070001)~~

摘　　要：人为因素对设备可靠度评估和定检周期修决策有重要影响,但目前的研究往往忽略了人为因素的影响,为此,提出了一种基于比例故障模型的设备可靠度评估改进方法:一方面,不对设备状态转移作任何简化,即认为设备状态转移可能发生在任何时刻,而不仅仅是状态监测点;另一方面,利用广义帕累托分布表征人为因素对设备可靠度评估的影响。在此改进方法基础上,完善了设备定期检修模型,考虑了由人为失误造成的不完美检修情况。算例分析表明:人为失误、检修故障比例、检修时间、故障修复时间等因素对设备检修可用率的影响;在定期检修中充分考虑人为因素等情况可以提高设备可用率。Human factors have important effects on equipment reliability evaluation and maintenance quality. However, they are usually neglected in conventional researches. Hence, this paper proposes an improved approach to evaluate equipment reliability based on proportional hazard model（PHM）, considering the running age, health condition and human factors. State transition is supposed to happen at any time instead of just at inspection point, which is more realistic. A generalized Pareto distribution（GPD） is adapted to describe the influence of human errors on equipment reliability evaluation. And on this base, a modified periodic maintenance model is established considering the maintenance might be imperfect resulting from human errors. HCR, a widely used human reliability analysis method, is introduced to express the relation between human reliability and maintenance time. Results of numerical case study demonstrate the influence of human reliability, maintenance time, failure repair time and percentages of failure after maintenance, which is characterized by the variation of maintenance availability.

关 键 词：比例故障模型 设备可靠度评估 人为因素 定检周期决策 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]