全球石油供应下新地缘政治经济格局分析  

New Geopolitical Economic Analysis Based on Global Oil Supply

作　　者：陈志建[1,2] 王铮[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013 [2]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [3]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2015年第3期1-12,共12页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"面向国家经济安全的地缘政治经济学研究"(41171104);国家自然科学基金青年项目"长江经济带碳排放权分配与区域协调发展的调控机制及应对策略研究"(41501133);国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)"气候变化经济过程的复杂性机制;新型集成评估模型与政策模拟平台研发"(2012CB955800);江西省教育厅2014年度科学技术研究项目"时空视角下长江沿江区域碳排放趋同机制及减排政策研究"(GJJ14404)

摘　　要：石油与地缘政治的相互影响是必然和持久的,这深刻地影响着石油价格波动和国家石油能源安全。对此,本文选取1994年1月到2011年12月的时间序列数据,从地缘政治视角研究国际石油供给的格局及石油价格波动主导权。首先,通过Arc GIS进行空间分析,来展现石油供给的地缘政治格局总体面貌;其次,对国际石油价格波动主导权进行实证分析,结果显示:石油存储量与石油价格之间并非简单的线性关系,且在金融危机时期往往呈现负相关关系,在地缘政治事件频发时期往往呈现正相关关系;进一步对主导权量化估算,结果表明,国际石油价格波动主导权更多地掌控在OECD需求方,即金融业主导国家。随着时间的推移,非OECD需求方与石油供给方对国际石油价格主导权逐渐增加,同时,金融因素对国际油价波动的主导权不容忽视。The interaction between oil and geopolitics is inevitable and per-sistent, which profoundly affect international oil prices fluctuations and na-tional petroleum energy security. For a long time, international oil prices fluctuations has received much attention, from the government, enterprises and scholars.However, Few research studies have quantified the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations from a geopolinomic perspective. To remedy this situation, this article attempts to analyse the pattern of inter-national crude oil supplies and the dominant driver of international crude oil prices from the geopolinomic perspective. The analysis uses time series data from January 1994 to December 2011. Using ArcGIS classifications, this study depicts the general geopolitical pattern of crude oil supply. Next, the study conducts an empirical analysis of the dominant driver of international crude oil price fluctuations. The results demonstrate that the relationship between crude oil reserves and crude oil prices are not simply linear: reserves and prices are negatively correlated with each other in periods of financial cri-sis and positively correlated during periods of frequent geopolitical events. Further quantitative estimation indicates that international crude oil price fluctuations are largely driven by OECD crude oil demand; in particular, this is true of the countries led by the financial industry. As time goes on, non-OECD crude oil demand and crude oil suppliers have more influence in de-termining international crude oil prices. Finally, the dominant effect of fi-nancial factors on crude oil price fluctuations cannot be ignored.

关 键 词：地缘政治 国际石油价格 主导权 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F274