基于Monte Carlo方法的腐蚀管道可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of corroded pipelines based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：孙春梅[1] 李琴[1] 黄志强[1] 汤海平[1] 肖祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学机电工程学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《油气储运》2015年第8期811-816,共6页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中石油科技创新基金项目"减阻剂减阻机理的研究与应用";2011D-5006-0607;高等院校研究生创新基金"基于概率方法的腐蚀管道可靠性研究";CX2014SY17

摘　　要：针对传统的腐蚀管道可靠性评估方法只注重确定性因素,而未考虑不确定因素影响的问题,基于可靠性分析方法的基本理论,建立了腐蚀管道失效的极限状态函数,采用Monte Carlo方法,综合考虑管道缺陷尺寸、材料特性、载荷等不确定性因素的影响,对腐蚀管道各随机参数进行了灵敏度分析,揭示了腐蚀深度和径向腐蚀速率是影响管道可靠性的两个关键因素。利用Matlab模拟油气管道的腐蚀发展过程,获得了腐蚀深度、径向腐蚀速率的不同数字特征值对管道可靠性的影响,并对其进行寿命预测,对管道的维护决策具有重要意义。Traditional analysis methods for reliability evaluation of corroded pipelines only focus on certainty factors, but without considering the effect of uncertainty factors. Limit state function of corroded pipeline failure is built on the basis of fundamental theories of reliability analysis methods. The Monte Carlo method is adopted to analyze comprehensively the effects of uncertainty factors （e.g. pipeline, pipeline defect size, material natures, and load） on pipeline reliability. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on each stochastic parameter of corroded pipelines, and it is revealed that corrosion depth and radial corrosion rate are two key factors affecting reliability of pipelines. The effect of different numerical characteristics values of corrosion depth and radial corrosion rate on pipeline reliability is investigated by using MATLAB to simulate the corrosion development process of oil and gas pipelines. The life of the pipelines is also predicted. Obviously, the results of pipeline reliability analysis play an important role for pipeline maintenance decision. （13 Figures, 1 Table, 15 References）

关 键 词：腐蚀管道 灵敏度 可靠性 剩余寿命 MONTE CARLO模拟 

分 类 号：TH122[机械工程—机械设计及理论]