海洋石油管道失效可能性及失效后果权重  

Failure probability of offshore oil pipelines and its failure consequence weight

作　　者：俞树荣[1] 何鑫业 刘展[3] 胡斌[2] 李淑慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学,甘肃兰州730050 [2]中国特种设备检测研究院,北京100029 [3]国家质量监督检验检疫总局,北京100088

出　　处：《油气储运》2015年第8期896-900,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：质检公益性行业科研专项"基于风险管理的海洋石油平台压力管道安全评定研究";201210026

摘　　要：为满足我国海洋石油管道科学监管的需求,需建立适合国情,兼顾安全性与经济性的安全评价体系。应用系统工程中的解析层次法,通过对海洋石油管道危险源风险因素两两比较,对非定量事件进行了定量分析尝试,对主观判断进行了客观描述,将海洋石油管道危险源风险问题简单化。在Muhlbauer W K提出的长输管道风险评价的基础上,引入了海洋石油管道风险评价技术,建立了海洋石油管道失效可能性及失效后果层次分析图的模型,介绍了利用解析层次法确定失效可能性因素及失效后果权重的流程,并计算了各层风险因素相对于海洋石油管道失效可能性及失效后果的权重,为海洋石油管道安全评价及分级研究提供了理论基础。In order to meet the requirements to supervise scientifi cally offshore oil pipelines in China, it is necessary to establish a safety evaluation system taking account of safety and economy on the basis of national situations. In this paper, analytical hierarchy process of system engineering is adopted to analyze quantitatively the non-quantitative events by conducting pairwise comparison on risk factors of hazards of offshore oil pipelines. In this way, subjective judgment is described objectively, and consequently risk issues related with hazards of offshore oil pipelines is simplifi ed. On the basis of long-distance pipeline risk evaluation proposed by Muhlbauer W K, a risk evaluation technology of offshore oil pipelines is introduced to build up models for failure probability of offshore oil pipelines and analytical hierarchy diagrams of failure consequence. This paper presents the fl ow chart to determine failure probability factors and failure consequence weighting by using analytical hierarchy process, and calculates weights of risk factors at each hierarchy relative to failure probability and failure consequence, so as to provide theoretical basis for safety evaluation and hierarchy analysis of offshore oil pipelines.

关 键 词：海洋石油管道 失效可能性 失效后果 权重 

分 类 号：TE835[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]