大陆对台湾农产品出口增长的成因——基于CMS模型的分析  

An Analysis of Agricultural Products Export Growth Factors from Mainland to Taiwan Based on CMS Model

作　　者：谢国娥[1] 蒋煦[1] 杨逢珉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学商学院,上海200237

出　　处：《华东理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第3期69-77,共9页Journal of East China University of Science and Technology：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(批准号:12BJY009);教育部人文社科基金规划项目(批准号:12YJAGAT002);中央高校基本科研业务费(WN1222001)的支持

摘　　要：近十年来,大陆是台湾农产品进口的主要地区之一。大陆农产品对台湾出口不断增长,其产品结构也在发生不断变化。本文应用CMS二层因素分解方法对2002~2012年大陆农产品出口台湾的变动进行了分析,结果显示：在CMS模型第一层分解中,交叉效果、竞争效果、规模效果对大陆农产品出口台湾起着依次重要的作用;而在CMS模型第二层分解中发现,大陆农产品的产品竞争力效应和产品规模效应基本都是负值,大陆对台湾农产品出口的增加主要取决于增长效应和综合竞争力效应,而非农产品本身竞争力的提升。据此,提出了加强大陆农产品对台出口以及两岸农业合作的建议。In last decade Mainland is one of the main areas of Taiwan agricultural products importing.Mainland continues to increase their agricultural products exports to Taiwan and its structures are also changing. The paper uses CMS model to analyze agricultural products export change of Mainland to Taiwan based on the data 2002~2012. The result shows that cross effect,competitive effect and scale effect play an important role in turn in the first layer decomposition of the CMS model. However,in the second layer decomposition of the CMS model we find that the growth of the Mainland agricultural product export to Taiwan depends mainly on growth effect and comprehensive competitiveness effect rather than competitiveness of the product itself. Based on it,some suggestions are put forward to strengthen Mainland agriculture products exporting to Taiwan.

关 键 词：大陆农产品 出口变动 CMS 台湾 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]