不同维GM(1,1)模型在基坑地表沉降预测中应用  

Application of Different Dimension GM(1,1)Model in Prediction of Foundation Pit Ground Settlement

作　　者：郑丽[1] 白宝玉[2] 

机构地区：[1]宿州学院环境与测绘工程学院,安徽宿州234000 [2]重庆市公安局科技信息化处,重庆400000

出　　处：《沈阳大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第4期277-282,共6页Journal of Shenyang University：Natural Science

基　　金：宿州学院安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术研究中心开放课题资助(2013YKF04);宿州学院校级项目(2011yss03)

摘　　要：根据地铁工程施工中基坑地表沉降监测数据,引入灰色系统理论,建立不同维GM(1,1)预测模型,对基坑开挖引起的周边地表沉降作了预测和分析.通过残差和后验差法对模型的可靠性进行检验,通过实证分析了在基坑地表沉降预测中应用灰色模型的可行性.研究结果表明构建不同维灰色模型,随着参与建模的数据维度的增加,发展系数-a逐渐减小,而灰作用量b、后验差指标C及平均相对误差均呈现增大的趋势,所建不同维GM(1,1)模型精度均达到了一级,尤以4维GM(1,1)模型累计沉降量实测值与累计沉降量预测值吻合较好,满足短期预测需求.可见针对基坑周边地表沉降需要的建模数据较少,便于节约长期观测成本,可为工程后继施工提供一定的理论依据.Based on foundation pit surrounding ground settlement data of subway engineering,the grey system theories are employed.By establishing the different dimension GM（1,1）prediction models,ground surface settlement of foundation pit were forecasted and analyzed.Use residuals and the posterior variance validation to the reliability of the model outcome,the exemplified result shows that the feasibility of grey model to forecast ground surface settlement of foundation pit is verified.The result shows that in constructing different dimension GM（1,1）model,as the number of data dimension grows,the parameter a is decreased,but the parameters b,Cand the average relative error are increased,different dimension model all has high precision achieve the level of the standard 1.The calculating results of four dimension GM（1,1）model accordance well with those experimental observation of surrounding ground settlement,it is suit short-term prediction demand.So,the required data for modeling the ground surface settlement needed are relatively less,which can save the cost for long-term observation and provide an important theoretic basis.

关 键 词：基坑工程 不同维GM(1 1) 地表沉降 预测 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]