渔船大风浪中航行风险分析及估算模型研究  

Study on the Risk Analysis & Estimation Model of the Fishing Vessel Sailing in the Heavy Sea

作　　者：胡波华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋学院水产学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《浙江海洋学院学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期187-191,共5页Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：浙江省教育厅(Y201223122)

摘　　要：风险分析的核心内容是风险估算,它是通过计算风险事件发生概率大小后对风险进行量化的过程。为了保证渔船驾驶人员及其他相关管理人员对渔船安全航行决策有可靠依据,提高渔船大风浪中安全航行,对渔船在大风浪中航行进行风险估算十分必要。本文通过对渔船在大风浪中航行时可能发生的风险事故、发生原因和后果进行初步分析后,选定了导致渔船大风浪中航行发生风险的致灾因子和危险等级,提出了利用模糊综合评定的方法对渔船大风浪中航行进行风险估算的初步数学模型。据此模型,当渔船选定一个航行方案后,根据海洋、气象部门发布的航行海区风浪预报信息,可以获得渔船大风浪中航行危险等级的模糊评定结果。The core content of the risk analysis is the risk estimation. It is a process of the risk quantification by calculating the probability of the occurrence of the risk event. In order to ensure the drivers of the fishing vessel and other related manager have the reliable basis of the safety decision for the fishing vessel navigation, to improve the navigation safety of the fishing vessel in the heavy sea. It is necessary to do the risk estimation for fishing vessel sailing in the heavy sea. Through preliminary analyzing the risk accident, causes and consequences about the fishing vessel sailing in the heavy sea, the paper selects the hazard factors caused the occurrence of the risk event of the fishing vessel and the hazard rating, puts forward a preliminary mathematical model for estimating the risk of the fishing vessel sailing in the heavy sea by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. On the basis of the model, when the fishing vessel selected a navigation scheme, according to the forecast informatiQn issued by the ocean and meteorological department in navigation area, we can get the vessel sailing in the stormy waves dangerous levels of fuzzy evaluation result.

关 键 词：渔船 大风浪 风险估算 模糊综合评定 模型 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]