水安全系统的复杂适应性机理研究与评价模型初探  

Research on Complex Adaptive Mechanism and Assessment Model of Water Safety System

作　　者：任永泰[1] 杨茹雪 付强[3] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2015年第8期90-94,共5页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目"三江平原水资源潜力开发及对环境影响研究"(201301096);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目"三江平原水资源可持续利用综合评价与预警问题研究"(E201321);国家自然科学基金项目"基于CAS的区域农业水土资源配置系统复杂适应机理及应用研究-以三江平原为例"(51179032)

摘　　要：鉴于目前水安全系统研究、评价理论及方法的局限性,引入复杂适应系统(CAS)理论,可以有效模拟水安全系统演化规律,准确描述主体行为特征及发展方向。阐述水安全复杂适应系统的4个特性和3个机制,以及他们之间的相互关系,在此基础上建立了基于多变量迭代系统的水安全综合评价模型,为进一步研究水安全系统管理、评价及预警提供理论依据,拓展了复杂适应系统理论的应用范围。According to the limitations of the present research on theories and assessment methods of water safety system,the complex adaptive system theory,which can effectively simulate the evolution law of water safety system and describe the behavior characteristics and development direction of the subject,is introduced in this paper.The four characteristics,the three mechanisms of water safety complex adaptive system,and the relationships among them are expounded.Then a multi-variable iteration comprehensive evaluation method for water safety system is established.This provides a theoretical basis for the further study on water safety system management,assessment and early-warning.It also expands the application scope of the complex adaptive system theory.

关 键 词：水安全系统 复杂适应系统 特性 机制 多变量迭代综合评价方法 

分 类 号：F302.3[经济管理—产业经济]