电网调度操作安全风险实时评估方法  

Real-time Risk Assessment Method for Dispatching Operation Security

作　　者：陈东 潮铸 呼士召 曾沅[2] 王恩[2] 王丙东[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省电力调控中心,广州510699 [2]天津大学电气与自动化工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2015年第8期31-36,65,共7页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：广东电网调度操作安全风险量化评估模型研究及实用系统建设研究项目;国家自然科学基金项目(51277128)

摘　　要：目前调度员主要依据SCADA/EMS实时数据以及工作经验进行操作,有必要在操作前量化评估调度操作给电网带来的风险水平。文中将风险理论引入电网调度操作安全评估中,提出了一种考虑实时因素影响的调度操作风险量化评估方法。该方法在传统设备故障因素的基础上,分析并建立了调度操作成功/失败因素模型,用于重点分析调度操作自身的风险因素,同时应用基于灵敏度的最优负荷削减模型进行操作风险指标计算。最后利用IEEE 30节点测试系统验证本文所提方法的有效性。Currently the dispatching work is mainly based on mass real-time data obtained by SCADA/EMS as well as the experience of dispatchers,then it is necessary to quantify the influence on power system brought by dispatching operation pre-executing. In this paper,risk theory is introduced into dispatching operation security assessment,and a quantitative risk assessment method considering real-time factors is proposed. The operation success/failure model is constructed on the basis of traditional component outage factors which can be utilized to analyze the risk sources out of dispatching operation and the risk index is calculated by the sensitivity based optimal load curtailment model in this method. Finally,the effectiveness of proposed method is validated by IEEE 30-bus test system.

关 键 词：调度操作 风险评估 最优负荷削减模型 灵敏度系数 

分 类 号：TM734[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]