青海省东部春小麦降水盈亏变化特征及其对气象因子的敏感性  

Dynamic variation of water deficit of spring wheat and sensitivity analysis of meteorological factors in eastern Qinghai

作　　者：张调风[1] 汪青春[1] 胡爱军[2] 王志俊[1] 申红艳[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,西宁810001 [2]青海省气象科学研究所,西宁810001

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2015年第9期2498-2505,共8页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201416);青海省气象局科研项目"基于GIS与HBV分布式水文模型的中小河流域山洪灾害预警方法研究及应用"资助

摘　　要：基于青海省东部农业区1961—2013年气象数据、春小麦生育期资料和PenmanMonteith模型、敏感系数法,探讨了气候变暖背景下高原地区春小麦不同生育期降水盈亏变化特征及其对平均气温、相对湿度、平均风速和日照时数的敏感性。结果表明:各生育期春小麦降水盈亏量在1988年发生了突变;播种-出苗期和出苗-拔节期内降水盈亏量在贵德-尖扎-循化一线有所加剧,拔节-抽穗期内同仁-化隆-民和降水盈亏程度加重,是变化最为剧烈的地区,抽穗-乳熟期和乳熟-成熟期降水盈亏有所缓解;全生育期降水盈亏量对日照时数最为敏感,对平均气温的正敏感区分布在湟水河河谷地带,对其他3要素的正敏感区主要分布在西北部。研究结果可以为水资源管理和灌溉定额制定提供指导。Based on Penman-Monteith model and partial derivatives,this paper analyzed the meteorological and crop data during 1961-2013,to assess the spatial dynamic variation of water deficit of spring wheat at different growth stages in the plateau agricultural region of eastern Qinghai Province. Meanwhile,sensitivity coefficients of the mean temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,and sunshine duration were studied. The result identified an increasing trend of water deficit of spring wheat at each growth stage since 1988. Moreover,the drought degree of spring wheat showed more aggravation during the period between sowing and jointing stages along the line of Guide-Jianzha-Xunhua; the drought degree of spring wheat showed an increasing trend in the period between jointing and heading stages in the regions of ＂Tongren-Hualong-Minhe＂,where the change range was the largest. However,a decreasing trend of water deficit was found in most parts of the whole region studied during the period between heading and maturing stages. The profit / loss amount of precipitation in the whole growth stage was the most sensitive variable to sunshine duration. The positively sensitive area to average air temperature was distributed in the valley of Huangshui River,while that to relative humidity,wind speed and sunshine duration was distributed in the northwestern part of eastern Qinghai. The findings from this study provide theoretical guidance on water resources management and regional irrigation scheduling.

关 键 词：春小麦 降水盈亏 敏感系数 Penman-Monteith模型 青海东部农业区 

分 类 号：S512.12[农业科学—作物学]