美国对中国核武器项目发展(1964—1972)的分析与预测  

US Analysis and Forecast of the Development of Chinese Nuclear Weapons Program(1964-1972)

作　　者：卢潇[1] 刘戟锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]国防科学技术大学人文与社会科学学院,长沙410073

出　　处：《自然辩证法研究》2015年第9期25-30,共6页Studies in Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:当代军事技术哲学研究(13AZX009)

摘　　要：美国一直高度关注中国核武器项目发展的进程,特别是1964年中国第一次核试验后,美国加强了对中国核武器研发进程和部署情况的情报侦察,并对中国核战略及核武器未来的发展走向进行分析与预测。但直到1972年中美关系解冻前,一方面由于中国的严格保密,另一方面由于其侦察手段有限,美国对中国核计划的评估与中国实际的研制部署情况还是有很大的出入。不过这些分析报告仍然给美国的决策者提供了一条认识中国尖端军事技术发展的渠道,也间接反映了当时的中美关系及核武器对中美互动的影响,为美国对华政策提供了决策参考。The United States had paid much attention to the process of Chinese nuclear weapons program. Especially after Chinese first atomic bomb test in 1964, U.S. enhanced intelligence reconnaissance on R＆D process and deployment of China＇s nuclear weapons, evaluated China＇s nuclear strategy and forecast its future trend. Until 1972, the rapprochement of China-US relations, due to Chinese strict confidentiality and the limited means of reconnaissance of the United States, U.S. estimate on China＇s nuclear program had many discrepancies to China＇ s actual situation. However, those analysis report, still offered American policymakers a channel to know about Chinese sophisticated military technology, and indirectly reflected the China-US relations and the impact of Chinese nuclear weapons to China-US interaction, provided a reference for U.S. policy towards China.

关 键 词：中国核武器 美国情报评估 

分 类 号：N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]