保定市8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化响应的积分回归分析  

Integral regressive analysis on the responses of first flowering date of eight woody species to climate change in Baoding,China

作　　者：裴顺祥[1] 郭泉水[2] 贾渝彬[3] 辛学兵[1] 许格希[2,4] 

机构地区：[1]中国林业科学研究院华北林业实验中心 [2]中国林业科学研究院森林生态与环境保护研究所 [3]河北农业大学园林与旅游学院 [4]北京林业大学林学院

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2015年第7期11-18,共8页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(200804001)

摘　　要：基于1986—2011年保定市气象和物候观测资料,运用积分回归法研究常见的8种乔灌木开花始期对气候变化的响应,并建立开花始期积分回归预测模型。结果显示：保定市8种乔灌木的开花始期受气温、降水量和日照等3种气候要素的共同影响,但各气候要素影响作用的大小不同,总体表现为气温〉降水〉日照。不同气候要素对各树种开花始期的影响方式、＂驱动＂力度与时俱变。在开花始期前几个月,各气候要素对物候影响的正负效应同时出现;除榆树和栆外,其他6个树种开花始期前几天的气温对开花始期的影响均为负效应。利用积分回归法建立的多变量预测模型具有较高的精度。对开花始期模拟的结果显示,当3月中旬气温改变1℃,降水量改变1 mm,日照时长改变1 h,8种乔灌木开花始期将改变约0.1~1.6 d。Based on the observed weather data and phonological information during the period 1986—2011 at Baoding city,we studied the responses of first flowering date of eight woody species to climate change with integral regressive method,and established integral regressive forecasting model of first flowering date. Results showed that： the first flowering dates of the eight species were jointly affected by three climate factors： air temperature,precipitation and sunlight,and the degree of their effect was ranked as air temperature precipitation sunlight. The patterns of the effect and driving force of first flowering date by each climate factor changed with time. The effect of climate factors on the first flowering date for each species could be both positive and negative several months before first flowering. Air temperature had negative effects on the first flowering date of six out of the eight species（ except for Ulmus pumila and Ziziphus jujuba） a few days before first flowering. The multi-variable model established with integral regression had a high precision of predicting first flowering date of plants. The simulation showed that,inmid-March,when the temperature changes by 1 ℃,the precipitation changes by 1 mm and the sunshine duration changes by 1 h,the first flowing date of the eight woody species would change by about 0. 1-1. 6 d.

关 键 词：开花始期 气候变化 响应 多因素 积分回归模型 

分 类 号：S718.512[农业科学—林学]