中国制造业FDI撤离的就业效应和应对政策的效果  

The Impact of FDI Withdrawing in Manufacturing on Chinese Employment and the Effectiveness of Responding Policies

作　　者：韩民春[1] 张丽娜[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院 [2]中共重庆市委党校

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第9期56-72,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：中国的劳动力成本持续快速上涨,对劳动密集型外商投资企业发展产生不利影响,制造业FDI撤离已初现端倪。本文通过建立模拟中国经济发展过程的动态一般均衡模型,预测了制造业FDI撤离的就业效应并比较不同应对政策的调控效果。研究结果显示,撤资加速了中国资本深化,对就业有明显的负面冲击,劳动参与率显著下降,就业冲击将随着撤资规模的扩大而持续放大。由于劳动力市场的城乡分割,撤资的就业冲击将集中爆发于城镇。对于中国的就业宏观调控,供给管理政策优于需求管理政策,其中降低资本税率的长期综合调控效果最优,是现阶段促进就业的良好突破口。Labor cost in China has been rising rapidly, which is not favorable to the la- bor-intensive foreign invested corporations. Foreign direct investment of manufacturing in China begins to withdraw gradually a general equilibrium model that can replicate the economic development process of China is established in this paper to predict the employment effect of the FDI withdrawing and the effectiveness of responding policies. The simulation results show that the manufacturing foreign direct investment withdrawing accelerates the capital deepening process in China, has obviously negative impact to employment and labor participation rate. The larger scale of the withdrawing, more workers lose their jobs. The nega- tive impact on the employment persists, and amplifies over time. Due to the segmented labor market, the unemployed people would gather in cities and towns. To improve economics development, especially to job creation, supply management policy is better than demand management policy for China. The capital rate reduction gets the optimal long-term comprehensive promotion effect, which is the key point to increase employment right now.

关 键 词：劳动力成本 FDI撤离 就业冲击 动态一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F741[经济管理—国际贸易]