SAM乘数效应链接模型设计与应用研究  

Research on Design and Application of SAM Multiplier Effect Link Models

作　　者：马克卫[1] 李宝瑜[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第9期135-148,共14页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国国家资产负债表编制理论与方法研究"(14BTJ007)的阶段性成果;国家社科基金重点项目"中国社会核算矩阵研究"(10ATJ001)的后续成果

摘　　要：目前国内外对投入产出模型的研究已经成熟,但如何将其扩展到整个国民经济收入分配和金融领域,还没有特别成熟的模型。有人尝试在社会核算矩阵(Social Accounting Matrix,SAM)上建立投入产出模型,但其应用的灵活性会受到限制。本文将SAM流量矩阵划分为投入产出表、国民收入流量表、金融流量表三张表,先分别建立三个模型,然后将其链接起来,形成一个能够反映国民经济所有环节乘数关系的模型系统。然后利用中国2012年的SAM数据,举例说明了其在实际经济分析中的应用。Currently, the research of input-output models has matured in domestic and foreign. But how to extend them to income distribution and financial sectors of national economy, there is still no mature model. Some people try to establish the input-output model on Social Accounting Matrix （SAM）, but has defects in flexibility. We divided SAM into three modules which were input-output table, national income flows table and financial flows table. Then we construct the multiplier models inner each modules and some transfer models which were used to link different modules. Based on them, we build a multiplier models system which could measure the multipliers in all stages of economic cycle. Finally, we tested and applied the models established in this paper used the real data of China＇s 2012 SAM. The results showed that the models are feasible in practical applications.

关 键 词：社会核算矩阵 乘数效应 链接模型 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]