基于AHP-变异系数法的越占南沙岛礁战略价值评价  

Strategic assessment of the Nansha Islands occupied by Vietnam based on AHP-variation coefficient method

作　　者：赵赛帅 刘永学[1,2,3,4] 李满春[1,2] 张荷霞[1] 孙超[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,江苏南京210023 [2]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心,江苏南京210023 [3]南京大学地理信息科学系,江苏南京210023 [4]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《海洋科学》2015年第6期114-121,共8页Marine Sciences

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划课题(2012AA12A406)

摘　　要：选取南沙海域被越南非法侵占的29个岛礁的法律地位、军事基地潜力、水域通达性、岛礁资源价值、陆地联系紧密度与区域战略潜力等主要因素构建指标体系,采用主客观综合赋权的方法——层次分析法(AHP,Analytic Hierarchy Process)-变异系数法,定量评价越南侵占的我国南沙岛礁战略价值。研究结果表明:(1)越占岛礁价值最高的为南子岛,其次是南威岛,目前越南对其开发程度均较高;(2)战略价值较高的鸿庥岛、景宏岛等岛礁离我国控制的部分南沙岛礁距离较近,对我国战略防御构成威胁。另外西礁战略价值较高,已成为南沙旅游开发景点之一;(3)战略价值较低的金盾暗沙、奥南暗沙等目前受自身开发条件限制较大,但蕴藏着极大的油气潜力。以上越占岛礁战略价值分析结果,将为维护我国固有领土完整,为解决中越南沙争端提供支持。The South China Sea is the most concentrated area of maritime rights and interests of China, but it also suf- fered the most serious violations of neighboring regions. Currently, a total of 29 Nansha Islands have been illegally occu- pied by Vietnam is, which is the strategic security challenges of reefs for China. This study selected six major indicators which closely related to reefs, including the legal status, military-building potential, waters accessibility, reef resource value, land contact tightness and regional strategic potential, and used subjective and objective integrated method of em- powerment - AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process）-variation coefficient method to quantitatively evaluate the 29 Vietnam occupied the Nansha Islands, which reflected the value differences. The results show that： 1） the reef with the highest value is the Nanzidao Island, followed by the Nanweidao Island, both of which are currently developed to a large degree by Vietnam; 2） with a higher strategic value, the Hongxiudao Island and the Jinghongdao Island are close to some of the Nansha Islands under our control, posting a threat to our strategic defence. With a higher value, the Xijiao Island has be- come one of the tourism development attractions in Nansha; 3） the Kingston Shoal, the Aonan Ansha, etc, have a lower strategic value as currently developed under greater self-limiting conditions, but the vast reservoir of oil and gas potential should not be ignored. The results of the reefs＇ strategic assessment help to preserve the integrity of our inherent territory, as well as provide support for solving the Spratly Islands dispute between China and Vietnam.

关 键 词：越南 南沙岛礁 AHP-变异系数法 战略价值 

分 类 号：P741[天文地球—海洋科学]