基于TOPMODEL与统计降尺度模型的泾河流域未来径流变化分析  

Analysis of future runoff variation in Jinghe River Basin based on TOPMODEL and statistical downscaling model

作　　者：张鸿雪[1] 畅建霞[1] 韩越[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室培育基地,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2015年第4期148-156,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190093);国家自然科学基金项目(51179148;51179149);陕西省重点实验室项目(13JS069);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2012490511)

摘　　要：通过美国国家环境预报中心NCEP再分析资料和泾河流域10个气象站的历史降水及蒸发资料,采用逐步回归法建立了降水、蒸发统计降尺度模型,利用TOPMODEL模型模拟了未来时期的径流量,分析了泾河流域未来的径流变化趋势。模拟结果表明:基于逐步回归法的降尺度模型与TOPMODEL模型的结合能较好地分析未来径流变化;未来时期的降水量和蒸发量呈现增大趋势;在RCP4.5情景下,年径流呈现先增大后减少再增大的趋势。在RCP8.5情景下,年径流呈现增大的趋势。Based on reanalysis data of USA National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and historical precipitation and evaporation data of 10 meteorological stations in Jinghe River Basin, the statistical downscaling model of precipitation and evaporation was established by use of stepwise regression method, the TOPMODEL model was used to simulate run-off in future period and analyze change trend run-off in Jinghe River Basin. The simulation results show that TOPMODEL combined with downscaling model that based on stepwise regression method can ana- lyze future runoff variation tendency better. The precipitation and evaporation in the future periods will present an increasing tendency. In Scenario RCP4.5, the annual runoff has a tendency of firstly increase, then decrease and then increase, and under Scenario RCP8.5, the annual runoff increases all the time.

关 键 词：TOPMODEL模型 降尺度 气候变化 CanESM2 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]