基于有序Probit模型的西部欠发达地区财政支农支出与农户满意度研究  

A Study of Relationship between Fiscal Expenditure for Supporting Agriculture and Farmers' Satisfaction in Western Underdeveloped Regions——Based on Order Probit Model

作　　者：陈治国[1] 辛冲冲 刘向晖[2] 李成友[3] 李红[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆农业大学管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [3]山东大学经济研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《新疆财经》2015年第4期41-48,共8页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"西部民族地区农机购置补贴政策的经济效率研究"(71063021);新疆人文社会科学重点研究基地--干旱区农村发展研究中心项目"新疆强农惠农政策绩效评价与对策研究"(XJEDU030114Y02)

摘　　要：本文根据新疆14个地州市1500个样本农户数据,基于有序Probit模型,估计出财政支农支出对农户满意度的影响效应。研究结果表明:财政支农支出作为影响农户满意度的重要变量,无论有无其他控制变量,其对农户满意度均存在显著的正向效应;但不同的财政支农支出对农户满意度的影响有差异:农村生产支出和农村基本建设支出与农户满意度显著正相关,而农村科技三项费用支出和农村救济费用支出与农户满意度没有显著关系。同时,通过对各财政支农支出项目对农户满意度影响的取值概率的估计得出:农村基本建设支出对农户满意度影响最大,其次是农村生产支出,而农村科技三项费用支出和农村救济费用支出对农户满意度的影响不显著。为此,本文提出应通过建立健全动态支农资金增长机制、优化财政支农资金结构、提高财政支农资金管理水平等措施来提高财政支农支出的效应。Based on the data that include 1500 sample rural households surveyed from 14 prefectures and regions in Xinjiang, and by using order Probit model, this paper estimates the effect of fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture on farmers＇ satisfaction. The research results show that the fiscal expenditure as the important variables influencing farmers＇ satisfaction has significant positive effects on farmers＇ satisfaction despite whether there are the other control variables. The effects of different fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture on farmers＇ satisfaction are different. Rural production expenditure, rural infrastructure expenditure and farmers＇ satisfaction are positively correlated, and there is no significant correlation between three items of expenditure of rural science and technology, rural relief expenses and farmers＇ satisfaction. Meanwhile, according to the estimates of the value probability of the impact of the financial expenditure on the farmers＇ satisfaction, the rural infrastructure expenditure has the greatest impact on the farmers＇ satisfaction. The second is the rural production expenditure. However, three items of expenditure of rural science and rural relief expenses have no significant correlation with farmers＇ satisfaction. Finally, the paper puts forward to the effective innovation path in order to optimize and design the fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture.

关 键 词：财政支农支出 农户满意度 有序PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：F812.8[经济管理—财政学]