气候变化下湟水河西宁段区域水文变化研究  

Hydrological Changes Under Climate Change in Xining Reach of the Huangshui River

作　　者：赫晓慧[1,2] 王芳[1] 龚家国[1] 马国军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]郑州大学水利与环境学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第9期11-13,16,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101095)

摘　　要：采用线性回归法、滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和滑动t检验法对湟水河流域气候变化趋势进行了分析,在此基础上构建气候变化情景,利用SWAT模型进行了湟水河西宁段水文变化模拟。结果表明:1955—2010年气温与降水量均呈明显上升趋势,降水量、年均气温的线性变化率分别为20.01 mm/10 a、0.12℃/10 a;径流随降水量的增加而增加,随气温的升高而减少,且降水量变化对径流的影响更明显。Taking Xining reach of the Huangshui River as an example, based on linear regression method, the moving average method, Mann-Kendall trend test method and plain t-test method for climate change trends analysis in this basin, and then it built climate change scenarios, and used SWAT model to simulate the regional hydrological changes. The results indicate that the temperature and rainfall changes have significantly increased during the study period, the linear rate of change of the precipitation and average temperature is 20.01 mm,/10 a and 0.12 ℃/10 a respectively; runoff increases with precipitation, while the temperatures rise and runoff reduces and precipitation effects more obviously.

关 键 词：Mann-Kendall趋势检验法 滑动t检验法 SWAT模型 水文效应 气候变化 西宁段 湟水河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]