水安全系统多变量迭代综合评价模型的应用  

Application of Multivariate Iteration Comprehensive Assessment Model of Water Security System

作　　者：任永泰[1] 杨茹雪 付强[3] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030 [3]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第9期62-65,共4页Yellow River

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301096);黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(E201321);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179032)

摘　　要：现有的水安全评价方法多为指标的加权和,忽略了指标间的相互作用对整个系统评价带来的影响。在证实水安全系统具有复杂适应性的基础上,基于复杂适应系统的4个特性和3个机制及其之间的相互关系,从各特性和机制协调度的角度出发,建立了水安全系统多变量迭代评价模型。该模型充分考虑了系统内部指标间的复杂非线性关系,评价结果更加科学、客观。对建三江地区水安全系统进行评价,结果与该地区实际情况相符,充分证实了该模型的可行性与有效性。The existing water security assessment methods are mostly the plus of the index weighted, which ignores the impact of the interaction among the indicators existing within the evaluation of the entire system that brings. Based on the proven water security system is complex adaptive system and the relationships among the four characteristics and the three mechanisms of complex adaptive systems, in the perspective of the coordination among characteristics and mechanisms, this paper established a water security system multivariate iterative evaluation model. The model took account of complex nonlinear interaction among internal indicators and made the assessment more scientific and objective. Through carried on the appraisal to the Jiansanjiang area, the assessment results matched with the actual situation, which fully demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of this model in water security system evaluation.

关 键 词：水安全 评价模型 多变量迭代 熵权法 建三江地区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]