应用正交试验法分析地下水流模型参数灵敏度  

Application of Orthogonal Experiment on Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Simulation

作　　者：郝静[1,2] 贾仰文[1] 张永祥[2] 牛存稳[1] 冉令坦[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]北京工业大学建筑工程学院,北京100124

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第9期66-68,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51209224;51379215)

摘　　要：在地下水数值模拟中,实际水文地质条件的复杂性、概念模型和相关拟合数据的不确定性,往往造成数值模型和率定参数的随机性,从而降低模拟的精度。对参数进行敏感性分析,分清随机模型中参数的主次作用,可以有效提高模拟精度。以北京市朝阳区为研究区,选取与地下水流场相关性较大的渗透系数k、给水度u及贮水率s三种参数作为灵敏度分析因子,采用正交试验法中的极差分析和方差分析两种方法分析参数对模拟结果的影响程度。结果显示:含水层的渗透系数灵敏度值最大,给水度灵敏度次之,贮水率灵敏度最小。因此,在进行数值模拟时应重点提高含水层渗透系数的精度,以确保数值模拟的准确性。In the establishment process of groundwater numerical model, due to lack of hydrogeological data, it may lead to the uncertainty of hydrogeological conceptual model and the uncertainty of mathematical model. The analysis of parameters＇ reliability is necessary. The orthogonal experiment method has high efficiency and can overcome the defects of other analysis of the parameters sensitivity methods. This paper took Chaoyang District of Beijing as the study area. Range analysis method and variance analysis method were used to analyze the parameters sensitivity. Three parameters of permeability coefficient, specific yield and water storage rate were chosen as sensitivity parameters which closely link to groundwater flow field. The two methods both show that the sensitivity value of permeability coefficient is the maximum parameter, and the water storage rate is the minimal parameter. In the model, the accuracy values of permeability coefficient should be acquired, so as to improve the precision of the model.

关 键 词：灵敏度 正交试验法 渗透系数 给水度 贮水率 含水层 地下水 

分 类 号：P641.2[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]