基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法  

The target acquisition probability modeling method of long-range anti-ship missile based on search theory

作　　者：张建强[1] 刘忠[1] 杨红梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学电子工程学院,湖北武汉430033 [2]空军预警学院,湖北武汉430019

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2015年第4期188-194,共7页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61401493);国家部委基金资助项目(9140A01060113JB11012)

摘　　要：针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。Since the traditional capture probability model can not solve the problem of long-range anti-ship missile＇ s target capture calculation, a model was put forward to work out its maneuver acquisition probability by using search theory. The target distribution probability density function was established according to the target maneuvering rules. According to ＂ inverted four times square law＂ of the terminal guidance radar target detection probability and missile target relative motion trajectory, the anti-ship missile＇s detection function was constructed. The target acquisition probability could be calculated by the integral operation of their multiplication. The calculation results show that, if long-range anti-ship missiles do not take maneuver search strategy, acquisition probability decreases by 0. 47 when target indication error increases 1 km, acquisition probability decreases by 0. 3 when target velocity increases 10 knot, and acquisition probability decreases by 0. 3 when terminal guidance radar search radius reduced by 50%. If the anti-ship missile takes parallel search strategy, the impact of above factors on its acquisition probability has fallen dramatically. This method takes the following factors into account, such as target maneuver rules, sensor detection rules and missile acquisition strategy, and the maneuver acquisition probability of long-range anti-ship missile can be figured out accordingly.

关 键 词：反舰导弹 末制导雷达 搜索论 搜捕策略 搜捕概率 

分 类 号：E927[军事—军事装备学]