基于云模型和相对湿润度指数的干旱时空分布特征分析  

Analysis on Characteristics of Temporal-spatial Drought Distribution Based on Cloud Model and Relative Moisture Index

作　　者：龙贻东 梁川[1,2] 景楠[1,2] 王朕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065 [2]水力学及山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2015年第8期67-71,共5页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41271045);国家重点基础研究发展973计划项目(2013CB036401)

摘　　要：根据川中丘陵区8个典型站点1960—2011年逐月气象资料计算相对湿润度指数,并引入云模型,在年、季时间尺度上分析该研究区的干旱时空分布特性。结果表明,1994年为突变年,干旱开始呈持续加重趋势,干旱强度的时间分布较均匀且稳定;冬季干旱最严重,春季次之,冬季干旱强度的时间分布最均匀也最稳定;夏季和秋季不干旱,但夏季干旱强度的时间分布最不稳定,秋季干旱强度的时间分布最离散,且干旱呈显著加重趋势。除冬季干旱强度的空间分布的离散程度比时间分布的离散外,其余时段都比时间分布均匀,但稳定性比时间分布的小。因此,川中丘陵区主要为季节性干旱,特别应在冬季做好防旱减灾工作。Relative moisture index was calculated based on the monthly meteorological data from 1960 to 2011 of the 8 typical sites in the hilly area of central Sichuan, and cloud model was introduced to analyze the characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of drought in the study area at annual and seasonal time scale. The results indicated that 1994 was the mutation, when the drought began to show sustained growing trend. On the temporal distribution, the drought intensity was relatively uniform and stable. The worst drought was in winter, and the next was in spring. It was the most uniform and stable that drought intensity in winter. Summer and autumn were not droughty, but the drought intensity was the most unstable in summer. Discrete degree was the biggest and drought had significant increasing trend in autumn. In addition to the drought intensity of winter on the spatial distribution was more discrete than that on the temporal distribution, the rest of the time, it was more uniform than that on the temporal distribution, however, the stability was less than time distribution. Therefore, hilly area of central Sichuan was mainly seasonal drought, especially, drought control and mitigation could be prepared in winter.

关 键 词：云模型 相对湿润度指数 干旱 川中丘陵区 时空分布 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]