基于LMDI方法的我国制造业发展与CO_2排放脱钩关系研究  

Using LMDI to analyze the decoupling of carbon dioxide emissions by China's manufacturing industry

作　　者：王雪松[1] 任胜钢[1] 袁宝龙[1] 付祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中南大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第4期138-144,共7页Journal of Central South University：Social Sciences

摘　　要：运用LMDI完全分解方法将1995—2010年三个"五年"规划期间我国制造业产业CO2排放分解为排放因子效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产业结构效应和产业规模效应。通过产业发展与CO2排放脱钩测度模型计算,发现制造业经历了强复钩(1996—1999)、弱脱钩(2000—2001)、扩张性复钩(2002—2004)、弱脱钩(2005—2010)四个阶段。研究发现:产业规模扩张是导致我国制造业CO2排放增加的主要原因,产业结构变化也在一定程度上影响了CO2的排放变化,而能源强度降低是CO2排放减少的主要因素,排放因子效应和能源结构效应对CO2排放的变化起不到决定性的作用,但也在一定程度上影响了CO2的排放。This essay, by adopting the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method based on the extended Kaya identity, studies the total carbon dioxide emissions by China’s manufacturing industry during the period 1996-2010 from the following including emission factors, energy intensity, energy structure, industry structure, and industry scale. As the results suggest, China’s manufacturing industry has gone through four decoupling stages: strong negative decoupling stage (1996-1999), weak decoupling stage (2000-2001), expansive negative decoupling stage (2002-2004), and weak decoupling stage (2005-2010). Findings show that the increase in economic output has the largest effect on the increase of CO2 emissions and that the decrease in energy intensity has incurred a considerable decrease in CO2 emissions. Moreover, the impacts of emission factors, industry structure, and energy structure on CO2 emissions are relatively small and not the determining factors to the changes of CO2 emissions.

关 键 词：制造业 CO2排放 脱钩 LMDI Tapio模型 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]