基于Petri网和Agent的供应链需求预测模型  

Predicting model of supply chain demand based on Petri net and Agent system

作　　者：寇瑜琨 黄梦醒[1] 陈泓宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]海南大学信息科学技术学院,海南海口570228

出　　处：《计算机工程与设计》2015年第9期2496-2500,共5页Computer Engineering and Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71161007);海南省重点科技计划基金项目(ZDXM20130078)

摘　　要：为提高企业供应链需求预测的准确性,根据企业供应链动态协同需求预测特点,提出一种Petri网和Agent相融合的企业供应链协同需求预测模型。将企业需求供应链中每一个流程抽象成一个Agent,通过它们之间交互、协作描述企业供应链中的行为规则;采用Petri网刻画企业供应链需求的动态变化规律,建立企业供应链动态协同需求预测模型。采用仿真对比实验测试其有效性,仿真结果表明,该模型可准确描述企业供应链的需求变化趋势,提高了企业供应链需求预测系统的运行效率,为企业供应链管理人员决策提供了有价值的参考信息。To improve the prediction accuracy of enterprise supply chain demand, according to enterprise supply chain collabora- tive demand, a prediction model was proposed based on Petri net and Agent. Every process in the supply chain enterprises de- mand was abstracted as an Agent, and the change trend was described by interaction and cooperation among Agents, and then Petri net was used to capture the dynamic change law of supply chain demand and establish the prediction model of supply chain collaborative demand. The simulation experiment was carried out to test its validity and superiority. The results show that the proposed model can accurately describe the change law of enterprise supply chain demand and improve the prediction efficiency of enterprise supply chain demand system, so it can provide valuable references for the decision-maker of enterprise supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链 需求预测 PETRI网 AGENT系统 动态特性 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]