东北航线驱动下环渤海港口规模雁阵演化研究  

EVOLUTION OF THE FLYING GEESE MODEL FOR BOHAI SEAPORTS WITH OPENING OF THE NORTHEAST PASSAGE

作　　者：李贺 李振福[2] 

机构地区：[1]中交第三航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,上海200032 [2]大连海事大学,交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《极地研究》2015年第3期289-297,共9页Chinese Journal of Polar Research

基　　金：国家重大项目基金(13&ZD170);国家社科基金(08BGJ007);国家自然科学基金(61174166)资助

摘　　要：东北航线作为北极航线的重要组成部分,相比于西北航线,对于中国而言拥有更大的利用价值,尤其对中国经济发展、海运贸易、港口规模等有着巨大影响。因此,以东北航线为研究切入点,以环渤海港口为研究对象,在总结海运航线与港口规模存在密切联系基础上,从微观层面重点分析了东北航线对环渤海港口的货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量及经济效益三大主要指标的影响,进而采用主成分分析法对东北航线开通前后的环渤海港口进行了综合评分比较,指出东北航线开通不会打破现阶段环渤海港口的整体雁阵模式,但同一层次不同港口的发展位序将会发生改变,并针对不同层次的港口提出了不同的发展建议。In terms of Arctic transport routes, the Northeast Passage is more important to China than the Northwest Passage. The route has a huge impact on economic development, marine trade, and the scale of ports. This study investigates ports in the Bohai Sea, and analyzes the impact of the Northeast Passage on cargo throughput, container throughput, and operational efficiency based on the close contact of shipping routes and the scale of ports. Comprehensive scores before and after the opening of the Northeast Passage are analyzed using principal component analysis. The findings indicate that the opening will not disrupt the current stage of the Flying Geese Model of Bohai seaports, and that the development order for different ports will change within the same stage of the model. Different development proposals for these ports are proposed based on the study findings.

关 键 词：东北航线 港口规模 雁阵模式 

分 类 号：U697[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]