央行沟通与实际干预工具的组合匹配:来自美联储的证据  

Combinative Matching between Central Bank's Communication and Actual Intervention Tool:Evidence from FED

作　　者：史焕平[1] 谭天骄 

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330013 [2]南京财经大学金融学院,江苏南京210046

出　　处：《当代财经》2015年第9期55-65,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"央行沟通与实际干预工具的组合匹配及其转换时机"(13BJY173)

摘　　要：央行沟通作为央行调控的一项新兴有效手段,已被多国纳入货币政策的操作工具。以美联储为研究样本,通过研究比较央行沟通与实际干预工具在组合匹配与否下的两种调控效果,发现央行沟通与居民消费物价指数和经济增长之间存在因果关系;同时,与实际干预工具不匹配情况相比,在央行沟通与其匹配的情况下,前瞻性指引能够较为有效地引导经济主体形成合理预期,消费物价指数和经济增长的冲击力度和贡献率更大。我国应将央行沟通作为货币政策中常态化的调控手段,并努力在明确央行沟通的实施框架、作用范围、传导机制的基础上,实现与实际干预工具的组合匹配。As a new and useful regulation tool, central bank communication （CBC） has been tak- en into the special monetary policy by many countries. Taking the Federal Reserve （FED） as the research sample, this paper studies and compares the two regulated effects with or without the combinatire matching between central bank communication and actual intervention tool. The results show that there exists a cause-and-effect relationship between CBC, CPI and economic growth. Meanwhile, com- pared with the mismatching of actual intervention tool, in the context of the matching of CBC, the forward looking guide can more effectively lead economic subjects to forming rational expectation, and the degree of impact and the contribution rate of CPI and economic growth will be greater. Chi- na should take CBC as the normalized regulating means in its monetary policy, so as to realize the combinative matching with the actual intervention tools on the basis of the clarified implementation framework, range of action and transmission mechanism of CBC.

关 键 词：央行沟通 实际干预工具 组合匹配 美联储 

分 类 号：F820.1[经济管理—财政学]