东北地区水稻障碍型低温冷害变化对区域气候增暖的响应  

Characteristics of Severe Cold Disasters and Its Responses to Regional Climate Warming in Northeast China

作　　者：胡春丽 李辑 焦敏 王婉昭 李晶 李菲[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象科学研究所,沈阳110166 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象科技》2015年第4期744-749,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)专项"中高纬度积雪和海冰异常及其与大气环流的相互作用对中国东北夏季低温影响"(GYHY201106016)资助

摘　　要：利用东北地区153个气象站1961—2010年逐日气温资料,采用统计学方法分析了水稻障碍型低温冷害的气候变化特征及其对区域气候变暖的响应情况。结果表明,东北大部地区水稻障碍型低温冷害事件呈减少趋势,但区域性较为明显;障碍型低温冷害对关键发育期气温变化响应较为敏感,二者呈显著的负相关关系,表现为气温每升高1℃,东北地区冷害减少35个站次。东北地区关键发育期气温均呈上升趋势,但吉林西部地区障碍型冷害却随之增加,分析了关键发育期气温变率和气候变率,将其解释为局地障碍型冷害增加主要受气候变率增大的影响,逐日气温变率对其影响不大。Using the daily temperature data of 153 stations from 1961 to 2010,the characteristics of cold disasters and their response to regional warming in Northeast China in recent 50 years are analyzed.The results show that the rice sterile-type cold disasters declined,but the regional feature is obvious in Northeast China.There is a significant negative correlation between temperature and cold disasters.When temperature rises 1 ℃,the cold disasters reduce 35 stations.The whole Northeast China temperature increased,but the chilling injury increased in the western Jilin Province.In order to probe into the causes,the key developmental stages of temperature variability and climate variability are analyzed. The explanation for the effect of local chilling injury increasing is mainly the increase of climate variability,and the daily temperature variation rate has little effect.

关 键 词：障碍型低温冷害 区域气候增暖 响应 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]