基于社会网络的恐怖活动时空特征分析  

Spatial-temporal characteristics analysis of terrorist activities based on social network analysis

作　　者：付举磊[1,2] 肖进[3,2] 孙多勇[1] 汪寿阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学信息系统与管理学院,长沙410073 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]四川大学商学院,成都610064

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2015年第9期2324-2332,共9页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71473263;71471124);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20134307110020)

摘　　要：社会网络理论的快速发展为反恐研究提供了新的视角,已有的研究多数只涉及恐怖活动的人员与组织.本文将社会网络应用于恐怖活动的时空特征分析,搜集了近60年来有关"东突"恐怖活动的文本资料,从中抽取出事件、时间、地点等信息,并以此构建了"事件-时间-空间"关系网络模型.基于社会网络分析工具ORA,结合地理信息系统技术,从不同角度对"东突"恐怖活动的时空特征进行了分析,并对分析的结果予以解释.本研究表明,"东突"恐怖活动呈现出明显的时空分布特征,这些特征对于防范恐怖活动的发生具有现实意义.Fast development in social network analysis provides a new perspective for the research on counter-terrorism, and most of the previous researches mainly focus on the personnel and organization of terrorist activities. This paper applied social network analysis to the field of spatial-temporal characteristics analysis in terrorist activities. A large number of text data from Internet related to ＂East Turkistan＂ activities in the past of 60 years were collected and the information about event, time and location were extracted. Then some network models describing the relationships among events, time and space were constructed. Further, some spatial-temporal characteristics of ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorist activities were analyzed from different viewpoints by social network analysis tool ORA, combining with geographic information system technology. Finally, the analysis results were explained. Research results show that the ＂East Turkistan＂ terrorist activities have obvious spatial-temporal characteristics. These characteristics are very important to prevent the terrorist activities.

关 键 词：社会网络分析 恐怖活动 时空特征 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学] N99[文化科学—情报学]