中国税收政策的福利成本——基于两部门结构转型框架的定量分析  

The Welfare Cost of Fiscal Policy in China:A Quantitative Analysis in a Two-sector Structural Change Model

作　　者：潘珊[1] 龚六堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院,邮政编码100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第9期44-57,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：北京大学研究生院才斋奖学金项目(CZ201410)的资助

摘　　要：本文在标准两部门结构转型框架下引入税收,应用福利分析法研究了政府税收政策对经济的长期和短期影响,并估算了中国税收的福利成本。研究发现,政府对经济主导部门——非国有部门的税收会对经济产生影响,而对国有部门的税收则无影响。从长期来看,政府对非国有部门的税收降低了平衡增长路径上的消费和资本存量;从短期来看,政府永久性提高对非国有部门的税收会刺激消费,但同时也抑制了投资。最后,本文校准了模型的参数,并估算了税收的福利成本,结果表明:我国税收的福利成本相当于消费水平减少6%—7%,将非国有部门的税率减少5个百分点,福利成本会下降1.5%;税率减少10个百分点,福利成本则会下降3%。This paper introduces tax in a standard two-sector structural change model and analyzes the short-run and longrun economic effects of government＇s fiscal policy. We find that, the tax on the dominant sector of the economy, non-state sector, has effect, while the tax on the state sector has no effect. In the long run, the tax on non-state sector reduces consumption and capital stock in the balanced growth path （BGP）. In the short run, a permanent increase of tax on non- state sector boosts consumption but discourages investment. Finally, we calibrate our model and estimate the welfare cost. The numerical simulation shows, the welfare cost of tax in China is equivalent to a 6%--7% reduction of consumption. If we cut down the tax rate of non-state sector by 5% , the welfare cost will decrease by 1.5% ; if cut down by 10% , the welfare cost will decrease by 3%.

关 键 词：结构转型 税收政策 两部门模型 福利分析法 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]