人民币汇率均衡、失衡与贸易顺差调整  

Renminbi Exchange Rate Equilibrium,Imbalance and Trade Surplus Adjustment

作　　者：王彬[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国工商银行总行投资银行部研究中心

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2015年第3期1277-1302,共26页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委青年基金项目"资本项目开放;人民币汇率及其预期波动与资产价格"(71303254)资助

摘　　要：本文基于新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡框架,从经济内部均衡和外部平衡的角度研究了人民币均衡汇率和汇率失衡程度。结果显示,人民币在2005年汇率形成机制改革后失衡趋势逐步缩小,近期汇率已接近均衡,未来大幅升值的可能性不大。本文进一步考察了汇率失衡与我国贸易顺差之间的关系,认为2005年以来的人民币持续升值已使得当前汇率对贸易顺差的贡献度大幅减弱,未来贸易部门的优化调整应更多着眼于贸易领域中结构性问题的有效解决。The paper studies Renminbi exchange rate equilibrium and imbalance from the perspective of economic internal equilibrium and external balance in an open economic NKDSGE framework. The result shows that the Renminbi underestimation trend decreased since the reform began in 2005, Renminbi is close to its equilibrium recently. The paper further studies the relations between exchange rate imbalance and trade surplus. It illustrates that the continuous appreciation of Riminbi since 2005 largely reduces the contribution of present Renminbi exchange rate to trade surplus; it should turn around to the structural problems in trade to adjust the trade surplus.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 均衡与失衡 贸易顺差 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]