太平天国战争对近代人口影响的再估计——基于历史自然实验的实证分析  

A Re-estimation of the Effect of the Taiping Rebellion on Population Loss in Modern China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Historical Natural Experiment

作　　者：李楠[1] 林矗[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学经济学院经济史学系

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2015年第3期1325-1346,共22页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划青年基金项目"中国早期工业化中童工问题的理论及实证研究(1840-1936)"阶段性研究成果;"上海财经大学创新团队支持计划"资助

摘　　要：本文利用唯一的清代人口面板数据,通过构建倍差模型对太平天国战争与人口损失的因果关系进行考察。本文发现,太平天国战争对近代人口变化有显著影响,受战争影响的区域与非战争区域相比年均人口增长减少35‰左右。即使在控制经济条件等因素,以及采用工具变量进行考察的情况下,该结果依然显著。本文不仅揭示了太平天国战争对近代人口损失的净影响,对现有估计进行了修正,同时也丰富了有关中国在19世纪是否存在马尔萨斯陷阱的讨论。The effect of the Taiping Rebellion on population loss in modern China has been a subject of ferocious debate. Using a unique prefectural panel data of Qing dynasty,this paper employs difference-in-differences and instrumental variable approaches to re-estimate the causal effect of the Taiping Rebellion on population loss. We find that the prefectures which are occupied by Taiping troops have lowered around 35‰ average of annual population growth rate than those which failed to be occupied. This finding not only revises the es- timates in current studies, but also enriches the discussion on Malthusian trap in the 19th century China.

关 键 词：战争 太平天国 人口损失 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]