国内零售业盈利模式研究——基于需求不确定性下的零供博弈分析  

Research on Profit-making Mode of Chinese Retailing Industry——A Gambling Equilibrium Analysis Based on Demand Uncertainty

作　　者：刘向东[1] 王庚[1] 李子文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2015年第9期108-117,共10页Finance & Trade Economics

摘　　要：国内零售商普遍采取的是"前台毛利+后台毛利"的综合盈利模式,也称"通道费"模式,但这种盈利模式的形成机理尚无定论。通过对零售企业的实地调研,本文发现业内收取的后台毛利主要是零售商规避销售风险的一种手段,相应的通道费模式是零售商在一定商业风险下基于其市场势力和运营能力作出的理性选择。基于此,本文建立了一个量化了零售商市场势力、运营能力以及需求不确定性的零供博弈模型,通过均衡分析考察零售商盈利模式的形成机理。模型分析表明,如果零售商的市场势力和需求的不确定性足够高,则通道费模式就将成为固定的盈利模式;反之,通道费模式就只是零售企业运营能力积累过程中的阶段性选择。随着互联网经济技术冲击下零售企业市场势力的丧失和运营能力的提升,可以预见国内零售企业将逐步摒弃通道费盈利模式。Chinese retailers generally adapt an integrated profit-making mode of ＂front-ground profit back-ground profit＂, which is called ＂slotting allowance mode＂. Nevertheless, no final conclusion has yet been reached on the formation mechanism of this mode. Through field research on retail enterprises, we find that the ＂back-ground profit＂ is a means which retailers use to avoid selling risk, and this profit mode is a rational choice of retailers under the condition of selling risk, market power and operation ability. This paper builds a gambling model to quantify market power, operation ability and demand uncertainty of retailers, and investigates formation mechanism of different profit modes. The equilibrium analysis shows that if a retailer＇s market power is strong enough, and it faces enough sales＇ uncertainty, then slotting allowance will be a constant operation mode~ otherwise, slotting allowance is just an impermanent choice of the retailer in a process of operation ability accumulation. With the loss of market power and the enhancement of operation ability under the impact of Internet economy, Chinese retail enterprises will gradually go back to traditional profit-making mode.

关 键 词：盈利模式 后台毛利 不确定性 市场势力 运营能力 

分 类 号：F713.32[经济管理—产业经济]