为什么预期稳定是重要的--兼议货币市场上的规则与相机抉择政策  

Why Expectation Stability is Important:the Rules and Discretions in the Money Market

作　　者：伍戈[1] 陈得文[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行货币政策二司 [2]中国人民银行合肥中心支行

出　　处：《金融监管研究》2015年第5期38-50,共13页Financial Regulation Research

摘　　要：货币市场的波动,很大程度上取决于市场预期是否稳定。本文尝试将预期因素引入传统货币市场供给需求框架,并以此为基础剖析不同政策选择下,外部冲击对市场主体的行为差异,以及由此引发的货币市场波动。研究表明,在中央银行相机抉择下,市场往往难以准确预测央行的行动。一旦冲击发生,为避免流动性不足可能造成的高额成本,理性的金融机构会增加预防性持有量,市场利率可能大幅上升。此时,即便央行入市干预,预防性需求也不会迅速回落。相反,如果央行提出明确的政策规则,金融机构能够准确预测央行的行动,预防性需求也不会发生明显变化,市场利率相对平稳。此时,即使央行不采取行动,只要市场相信其政策规则承诺,理性预期也会引导市场利率向目标利率逼近。但值得一提的是,在软预算约束等扭曲经济结构下,货币市场可能存在着"刚性"的投机性需求。对此,货币政策也需要辅之以数量型调控等来维护货币市场平稳运行,更好地实现宏观政策意图。The volatility of money market depends on the stabilization of the market expectations. This paper attempts to construct an analysis framework by introducing expectation factors into the traditional framework of supply and demand in the money market, and analyzes the change of the behaviors of market agents and volatility when external shocks had happened in that framework. It is shown that in the case of discretions, in order to avoid high cost caused by lacking of liquidity, rational financial institutions would increase precautionary holdings as they can not accurately predict the central bank＇s actions after shocks occurred, which may cause interest rates increase substantially. Even if the central bank intervenes, precautionary demand does not come down quickly. On the contrary, in the case of explicit rules proposed by the central bank, precautionary demand would not change significantly as financial institutions could predict the central bank＇s actions successfully, then interest rates fluctuate slightly. At this point, even if the central bank does not take action, rational expectations would guide the market interest rates to the target as long as the market believes the central bank＇s policy commitments. But under the soft budget constraint the central bank needs to control the quantity of liquidity because there is a ＂rigid＂ speculative demand in the money market besides price based rules.

关 键 词：货币市场 预期 规则 相机抉择 软预算约束 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]