兰州市大气污染物的分布特征及其对人体健康的影响  

Distribution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants and their effects on human health in Lanzhou City

作　　者：张莹[1] 刘丽伟[1] 宁贵财 王式功[1] 尚可政[1] 赵文婧[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《卫生研究》2015年第5期723-729,共7页Journal of Hygiene Research

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(No.GYHY201106034);"中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金"自由探索项目(No.lzujbky-2012-123);国家自然科学基金(No.41075103)

摘　　要：目的探讨兰州市大气污染物的分布特征及其对呼吸系统疾病的健康效应。方法收集兰州市2001年1月1日至2009年12月31日的大气污染物（PM10、SO2和NO2）资料及同期的气象资料和呼吸系统疾病日入院资料,分析了PM10、SO2和NO2的分布特征及其与气象因子的相关关系。采用时间序列半参广义相加模型（GAM）研究了大气污染物与呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的暴露-反应关系。结果 9年内PM10和SO2浓度表现出下降的趋势,NO2浓度基本保持不变;3种污染物浓度最高值均出现在冬季,最低值出现在夏季;PM10浓度月分布呈双峰型,SO2和NO2呈单峰型。气象因子与污染物有显著的相关关系。三种污染物对呼吸系统疾病入院人数的影响存在滞后效应,均在滞后0-6 d（avg06）的移动平均值使呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的超额危险度（ER）达到最大,其中PM10、SO2和NO2浓度每增加10μg/m3,对应的呼吸系统疾病日入院人数的ER分别为0.45%、1.35%和3.02%。结论兰州市大气污染物（PM10、SO2和NO2）对呼吸系统疾病的日入院人数有影响。Objective To evaluate the distribution characteristics of atmospheric pollutants in Lanzhou City and their health-effects on daily respiratory disease hospital admissions. Methods Using the same period atmospheric pollutants（ PM10,SO2 and NO2） data,meteorological data and daily respiratory disease hospital admissions data,from 2001 to 2009 in Lanzhou,to analysis of the distribution of three air pollutants（ PM10,SO2 and NO2）,and their correlation with meteorological factors. On this basis,a time series semi-parametric generalized additive model（ GAM） was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between air pollution and daily respiratory disease hospital admissions. Results The concentrations of PM10 and SO2showed a decreased trends during the study period of 9 years,and NO2 showed weakly fluctuations and remainedsubstantially unchanged. The highest concentrations of the three pollutants were presented in the winter and the lowest value were presented in the summer. PM10 concentration monthly distribution was bimodal distribution,SO2 and NO2were unimodal distribution.There were significantly correlation between meteorological factors and pollutants. The results showed that there was certain lag effect of three kinds of air pollutants on daily respiratory disease hospital admissions. The lag time of three air pollutants all were 0- 6day moving average（ avg06）. An increase of 10 μg / m^3 in PM10,SO2 and NO2were significantly associated with the excess risk（ ER） of 0. 45%,1. 35% and 3. 02% for all respiratory hospital admissions. Conclusion The ambient NO2, SO2 and PM10concentrations have an adverse effect on daily hospital admissions for respiratory diseases of residents in Lanzhou City.

关 键 词：空气污染 呼吸系统疾病 半参广义相加模型 

分 类 号：X510.31[环境科学与工程—环境工程]