气候变化情景下黄淮海冬麦区农业气候资源变化特征  

Characteristics of Agricultural Climate Resources in Huang-huai-hai Winter Wheat Region under Climate Change Scenarios

作　　者：褚荣浩 申双和[3] 吕厚荃[4] 李萌[1,2] 谭诗琪 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [3]气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [4]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2015年第26期1-10,18,共11页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020);干旱气象科学研究(GYHY201506001)资助

摘　　要：根据黄淮海冬麦区83个站点1971-2000年逐日气象资料以及对比Reg CM3模式模拟输出的格点气象数据,对黄淮海冬麦区未来情景下气候变化特征、冬小麦农业气候资源及其影响的冬小麦适播期、生长季长度的时空变化进行分析,结果表明：1黄淮海冬麦区年平均温度呈现出空间上由南向北逐渐下降、时间上逐渐升高的趋势,年平均气温变化气候倾向率呈现先下降后上升的趋势;2黄淮海冬麦区≥0℃积温呈现空间上由南向北逐渐下降、时间上逐渐上升的趋势;80%保证率下冬小麦适播期（≥15℃终日）呈现空间上由南向北逐渐推迟、时间上逐渐推迟的趋势;生长季长度呈现空间上由南向北逐渐缩短、时间上逐渐缩短的趋势;3降水量呈现空间上由南向北先减少后增加、随时间南部明显减少、北部增加;参考蒸散呈现空间上由南向北先增加后减小、时间上逐渐减小的趋势;4日照时数空间由南向北逐渐增多、时间逐渐减少。Based on daily meteorological data of 83 stations from 1971 to 2000 in Huang-huai-hai winter wheat region combing with daily meteorological data from the regional climate model RegCM3, the spatial and temporal variations of the climate change characteristics in future scenarios, the agricultural climate resources of winter wheat, the optimum sowing date and the length of growth season in Huang-huai-hai winter wheat region were analyzed. The results showed that： （1） The annual mean temperature showed a gradually decreasing trend from south to north and increased from time ; the tendency rate of annual mean temperature decreased firstly and then increased o- ver time; （2） The accumulated temperature greater than or equal to zero showed a gradually decreasing trend from south to north and increased from time ;the optimum sowing date（the last day of 15 ℃ ） with a guaranteed rate of 80% showed a gradually delayed trend from south to north, the length of winter wheat growth season showed a gradually shortened trend from south to north and also from time ; （3） The precipitation decreased firstly and then increased from south to north , the precipitation decreased obviously in the south from time while increased in the north, the reference evapotranspiration increased firstly and then decreased from south to north and gradually decreased from time; （4） the sunshine hours increased gradually from south to north in spatial and decreased gradually from time.

关 键 词：黄淮海 冬麦区 农业气候资源 REGCM3 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]