Satellite derived upper ocean thermal structure and its application to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting in the Indian Ocean  

作　　者：孙春健 王喜冬 崔晓健 张晓爽 张连新 邵彩霞 吴新荣 付红丽 李威 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of State Oceanic Administration for Marine Environmental Information Technology,National Marine Data and Information Service,State Oceanic Administration [2]College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography,Ocean University of China [3]National University of Defense Technology

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》2015年第5期1219-1232,共14页中国海洋湖沼学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB430304);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41030854,41106005,41176003,41206178,41376015,41376013,41306006);the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(No.2013AA09A505)

摘　　要：Upper ocean heat content is a factor critical to the intensity change of tropical cyclones(TCs). Because of the inhomogeneity of in situ observations in the North Indian Ocean,gridded temperature/salinity(T/S) profiles were derived from satellite data for 1993–2012 using a linear regression method. The satellite derived T/S dataset covered the region of 10°S–32°N,25°–100°E with daily temporal resolution,0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution,and 26 vertical layers from the sea surface to a depth of 1 000 m at standard layers. Independent Global Temperature Salinity Profile Project data were used to validate the satellite derived T/S fields. The analysis confirmed that the satellite derived temperature field represented the characteristics and vertical structure of the temperature field well. The results demonstrated that the vertically averaged root mean square error of the temperature was 0.83 in the upper 1 000 m and the corresponding correlation coefficient was 0.87,which accounted for 76% of the observed variance. After verification of the satellite derived T/S dataset,the TC heat potential(TCHP) was verified. The results show that the satellite derived values were coherent with observed TCHP data with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. The intensity change of TC Gonu during a period of rapid intensification was studied using satellite derived TCHP data. A delayed effect of the TCHP was found in relation to the intensity change of Gonu,suggesting a lag feature in the response of the inner core of the TC to the ocean.Upper ocean heat content is a factor critical to the intensity change of tropical cyclones （TCs）. Because of the inhomogeneity of in situ observations in the North Indian Ocean, gridded temperature/ salinity （T/S） profiles were derived from satellite data for 1993-2012 using a linear regression method. The satellite derived T/S dataset covered the region of 10°S-32°N, 25°-100°E with daily temporal resolution, 0.25×0.25° spatial resolution, and 26 vertical layers from the sea surface to a depth of 1 000 m at standard layers. Independent Global Temperature Salinity Profile Project data were used to validate the satellite derived T/S fields. The analysis confirmed that the satellite derived temperature field represented the characteristics and vertical structure of the temperature field well. The results demonstrated that the vertically averaged root mean square error of the temperature was 0.83 in the upper 1 000 m and the corresponding correlation coefficient was 0.87, which accounted for 76% of the observed variance. After verification of the satellite derived T/S dataset, the TC heat potential （TCHP） was verified. The results show that the satellite derived values were coherent with observed TCHP data with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and statistical significance at the 99% confidence level. The intensity change of TC Gonu during a period of rapid intensification was studied using satellite derived TCHP data. A delayed effect of the TCHP was found in relation to the intensity change of Gonu, suggesting a lag feature in the response of the inner core of the TC to the ocean.

关 键 词：tropical cyclone intensification tropical cyclone heat potential sea surface temperature seasurface height 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学] P715.6