人口老龄化对我国城乡居民消费差距的影响研究——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析  

Research on the Influence of Population Aging on the Consumption Disparity of Chinese Rural and Urban Residents——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

作　　者：王笳旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学中国农村政策研究中心,北京10083

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2015年第5期109-115,128,共7页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：老龄化趋势加重和城乡居民消费差距过大是我国经济社会发展面临的两大困境。运用省际动态面板数据和两步差分广义矩估计研究我国人口老龄化对城乡居民消费差距的影响,结果显示:人口老龄化对城乡居民消费差距具有显著的负效应。城、乡人口老龄化分别对城、乡居民消费率有正向影响,但农村人口老龄化的影响程度高于城市,农村人口老龄化是缩小城乡消费差距的关键。我国城乡居民消费差距是收入差距和消费惯性共同作用的结果,城镇化对缩小城乡居民消费差距有积极影响。因此,重视农村人口老龄化、加快新型城镇化建设、完善农村新型养老保险和医疗保险体制,进而解除农村老年人口消费的后顾之忧才能有效缩小我国城乡居民消费差距。The trend of aging population is worsening and the consumption disparity of rural and urban residents is too big are the two major dilemmas faced by Chinese economic and social development. After this paper studies the effects of Chinese population aging on the consumption disparity of rural and urban residents by provincial panel data and two-step Diff-GMM method,it finds the results: population aging has significant negative effects on the consumption disparity of rural and urban residents. Rural and urban population aging has positive effects on the consumption rate of rural and urban residents,but the effects of rural population aging is higher than that of urban. Rural population aging is the key to reducing the rural and urban consumption disparity. The consumption disparity of Chinese rural and urban residents is the result of the interaction of income disparity and consumption inertia. Urbanization has active effects on reducing the consumption disparity of rural and urban residents. Therefore,the consumption disparity of Chinese rural and urban residents can be efficiently reduced by emphasizing rural population aging,speeding up new urban construction,perfecting new rural pension insurance and medical insurance system and getting rid of the worries after the rural old people consume.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 城市居民消费 农村居民消费 城乡差距 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] F126.1