基于CMS模型的中澳粮食贸易及其影响因素分解研究  

Research on China-Australia Grain Trade Based on CMS Model

作　　者：李靓[1] 穆月英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2015年第9期20-30,共11页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目;高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120008110032);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201103001)

摘　　要：近年来中澳粮食贸易快速发展,已互为重要粮食贸易伙伴。文章分析了中澳粮食贸易的历史演进,并运用CMS模型分析影响中澳粮食贸易增长的因素。研究发现:中澳粮食贸易总体呈波动上升,且以中国逆差为主;两国的粮食贸易依存度不断提升,中国对澳大利亚的依存度较高;中国从澳大利亚进口的粮食以大麦和小麦为主。中国从澳大利亚粮食进口需求的增长和进口粮食结构的改变是引起中国粮食进口额大幅增加的主要原因。预计未来中国从澳大利亚进口的小麦将不断增加,进口大麦有望波动上升,两国之间的玉米贸易将维持低位震荡。In recent years, China and Australia have become important grain trading partners. This paper analyzes the historical evolution of China-Australia＇s grain trade based on CMS model. It finds that： China-Australia grain trade volume generally increases in a wave-like manner, with China being the deficit country. China relies more on Australian grain imports, and barley and wheat are the main trade varieties. The growth of demand on grain and the change of import grain structure are the main cause of increased Chinese grain imports. In the future, wheat to be imported from Australia will continue increasing, barley to be imported will be in a fluctuating rise, and maize trade volume between China and Australia will remain low volatility.

关 键 词：中国 澳大利亚 粮食贸易 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F725.8[经济管理—产业经济]