新常态下中国税收与经济增长的关系——基于结构向量自回归模型的实证分析  

Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in " New Normal" Phase:Empirical Study Based on SVAR Model

作　　者：程婉静[1] 冯烽[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《技术经济》2015年第9期97-103,共7页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：使用1999-2014年中国的税收收入和GDP的季度数据,对两者的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国长期的税收弹性大于1,税收收入增速高于经济增速;经济上行阶段的税收弹性为1.28,富有弹性的税收具有抑制通胀的作用;经济下行阶段的税收弹性为0.98,说明税收并没有起到缓解经济波动的作用,其刺激经济活力的作用不足;第二产业增加值比重对税收的边际效应显著大于第三产业增加值比重;总税收增速放缓与第二产业经营遇阻有密切关系;在开放经济环境下,国内税收对世界经济的依赖性较为稳定,国内税收的长期增长有赖于国内GDP的持续增长。Using the season data of China＇s tax revenue and GDP during 1999-2014, this paper analyzes empirically the relationship between China＇s tax revenue and GDP. The result shows as follows：China＇s tax elasticity has been over 1 for a long time,tax revenue grows faster than GDP; the tax elasticity in economic upturn period is 1.28,which shows that flexible taxation curbes the inflation, and alleviates economic fluctuation strongly;the tax elasticity in economic downturn period is 0. 98,which indicates that the taxation does not alleviate economic fluctuation,and is far from fulfilling the role of stimulating economic vitality; the second and third industries have significant influences on tax revenue, and the marginal effect of the proportion of second industry on tax revenue is significantly bigger than that of third industry;the dependence of tax revenue on global economic environment is relatively stable,and the stable growth of tax revenue still rests upon the sustained growth of GDP.

关 键 词：国内生产总值 税收收入 税收弹性 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124