两化融合和技术创新能力的关系——基于PVAR模型的实证研究  

The Relationship Analysis between Industry and Information Technology Integration and Innovation Ability——Empirical Research Based On PVAR Model

作　　者：王冬[1] 韩伯棠[1,2] 高丽娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京理工大学两化融合发展研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《工业经济论坛》2015年第5期22-33,共12页Industrial Economy Review

摘　　要：两化融合是中国坚持技术创新,最终实现创新驱动、智能转型的重要途径之一。本文通过分析两化融合和技术创新能力之间相互作用的内在机理,建立面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,采用系统广义矩估计、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量方法对2001-2012年我国30个省市的两化融合和技术创新能力之间的动态关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:尽管两化融合和技术创新能力之间存在较强的正相关关系,但目前中国两化融合对技术创新能力的推动作用并不显著;技术创新能力对两化融合的影响存在二阶滞后,两化融合和技术创新能力本身对自身波动变化的贡献占主导地位。最后提出政策建议。The industrialization and information technology integration is one of the important ways for China to insist on research innovation to eventually realize the innovation-driven and intelligent transformation. This paper firstly analyses the interaction mechanism between industrialization and information technology integration and research innovation ability, then studies the dynamic relationship by panel vector autoregression model （PVAR） using a database of 2001-2012 China＇s 30 provinces＇ （except Tibet） data from empirical view. The results show that： Although there is a positive correlation between industrialization and information technology integration and research innovation ability, innovation＇s influence on the integration has 2 lags out and the integration do not significantly promote the innovation,. It is dominant of innovation and integration themselves to their self-fluctuation change. At the end of this paper, it gives political suggestions.

关 键 词：两化融合 技术创新能力 内在机理 面板向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F424