基于灰色理论和变权模糊综合评判的风电机组性能评估  

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF WIND POWER UNIT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION BASED ON GREY THEORY AND VARIABLE WEIGHT FUZZY MATHEMATICS

作　　者：万书亭[1] 万杰[1] 张成杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学机械工程系,保定071003

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2015年第9期2285-2291,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51177046);河北省自然科学基金(E2015502008);中央高校基本科研业务费专项(12MS101)

摘　　要：为了评估风电机组性能及优化其维修策略,保证风电机组安全稳定运行,提出基于灰色理论和变权模糊综合评判的风电机组性能评估方法。首先,分析风电机组控制系统所监测的物理量,采用层次分析法构建具有反映风电机组运行性能重要特征的项目层和子项目层框架,并针对子项目层中多项评判指标同时发生严重偏离的情况,引入劣化度指标。为避免层次分析确定指标常权值所引起计算误差过大的问题,利用灰色系统理论得到各评估指标的综合权重,并结合变权理论,对某些严重偏离正常值的指标进行权重修正,建立基于灰色理论和变权模糊综合评判的风电机组性能评估模型。然后,基于某1.5 MW风电场数据采集与监控系统(Supervisory Control andData Acquisition,SCADA)的运行数据进行计算,并与常规评估方法结果及实际运行分析进行比较和验证,结果表明所提出的风电机组性能评估方法和模型正确有效。To assess performance and optimize the maintenance strategy, ensure safe and stable operation of wind power grid, a wind turbine performance evaluation model was set up by using grey theory and variable weight method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. First of all, constructing projects and subprojects layer framework of the important characteristic performance of wind generator by analytic hierarchy process. According to multiple evaluation indexes in component layer serious deviation occurring at the same time, introduce the degradation degree index. To avoid the calculation error of hierarchical analysis to determine the index weights values, solution of index weight through the grey system theory, combined with the variable weight theory, for some serious deviate from the normal indexes weight correction, and building a wind turbines performance evaluation method and model. And then, based on a 1.5 MW wind farm SCADA operation data to calculate and compared with conventional evaluation methods results and actual operation are compared and validated. Based on a certain wind farm SCADA operation data, it shows that the proposed wind turbine performance evaluation method and the model are correct.

关 键 词：风电机组性能 层次分析法 劣化度 灰色理论 变权理论 

分 类 号：TM315[电气工程—电机] TM614