气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述  

Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes:A review

作　　者：石晓丽[1,2] 史文娇[3] 

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,石家庄050024 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《地理学报》2015年第9期1463-1476,共14页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401113;41371002);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项资助(XDA05090310);河北师范大学青年基金(L2011Q07);河北省高校重点学科建设项目~~

摘　　要：定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因,是当今气候变化和土地利用变化领域的热点问题。目前研究大都结合耕地的时空变化格局和相关驱动因素进行双变量或多变量的定性分析,未进一步定量给出气候变化和人类活动的贡献程度。本文对国内外相关研究进行总结,介绍了定量评价气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献程度的5种主要研究方法,即模型分析法、数理统计法、框架分析法、指标评价法和差值比较法。综述了气候变化、人类活动以及两者共同作用对耕地格局变化的贡献归因的主要结论。总结了目前研究存在的方法综合性较差、数据全面性与准确性欠缺、尺度单一和解释片面等问题,针对以上问题,提出了从综合作用到具体因素的贡献程度归因评价的思路,并就数据、尺度与驱动力的解释问题提出了研究展望。It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland in the fields of climate change and land use change. Relationships between spatial-temporal cropland changes and driving forces were studied at qualitative aspects in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland need to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to temporal-spatial cropland changes at quantitative aspects, e.g. model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. The progresses of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions were introduced. However, there were four defects in assessing the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. Moreover, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Meanwhile, we concluded a clue about quantitative approaches to assess the contributions from the synthetical aspect to specific driving forces. Besides, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

关 键 词：气候变化 人类活动 贡献程度 定量 耕地格局 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]