特种设备整类综合风险评价方法研究  

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of Whole Class of Special Equipment

作　　者：董颖[1] 罗云[2] 贾洪鉴[1] 袁红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国航空工业集团公司北京航空材料研究院,北京100095 [2]中国地质大学(北京)安全研究中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中国公共安全（学术版）》2015年第3期24-29,共6页China Public Security(Academy Edition)

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑项目"基于风险的特种设备分类监管"(项目编号2011BAK06B06)

摘　　要：基于单体设备分级方法,应用层次分析法,针对同类、异类和复合类特种设备的综合风险,在8类设备风险强度和每类单体设备风险分级(3级)的基础之上,建立了特种设备整类综合风险评价层次结构模型,分析计算出8大类24种风险级别的设备风险对整类综合风险的影响权重,并将3级定性风险量化取值,最后建立了特种设备同类、异类和复合类风险模型,对同类、异类和复合类设备进行风险计算、评价和比较排序。经实例验证:该方法可对特种设备整类综合风险进行计算和评价,为政府监察部门制定科学的政策提供依据。Based on the classification methods of monomer equipment and applying Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP）, as to the comprehensive risks of homogeneous, heterogeneous and compound classes of special equipment and on the basis of risk strength of eight classes equipment and the risk classification （3 levels） of each monomer equipment, the hierarchical structure model of the whole class of comprehensive risks was established. Then the influence weights of the 8 classes （24 types） equipment to the comprehensive risk were worked out and qualitative risks （3 levels） were changed into quantitative risks through monomer equipment classification of Hangzhou/Zhengzhou and Xi＇an. Finally, the model to calculate and evaluate the risk for homogeneous classes of special equipment were established, which can be used for comparing and ranking risk of homogeneous classes of equipment in different areas and units; and the model to calculate and evaluate the risk for heterogeneous classes of special equipment, which can be used for comparing and ranking risk of heterogeneous classes of equipment in the same areas and units; and also the model for compound classes of equipment, which can be used for comparing and ranking risk of all the special equipment in different areas and units. It is verified by a certain example that using the method, the comprehensive risk of whole class of special equipment can be calculated and evaluated.

关 键 词：特种设备 同类风险 异类风险 复合类风险 层次分析法 

分 类 号：X933[环境科学与工程—安全科学]